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Adjusting toward long-run purchasing power parity

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  • Ong, Kian

Abstract

Under purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates and relative prices adjust to maintain a constant real exchange rate in the long run. Its empirical validity continues to be questioned. We use data on exchange rates and prices relative to the U.S. for a long-span (1870–2020) panel of 16 countries to examine (a) whether the long-run elasticity is one; (b) whether there is adjustment by exchange rates or prices to maintain a constant real exchange rate and (c) the time taken to adjust. We use four estimators, which increasingly restrict the model. These are country-specific vector error correction model in exchange rates and relative prices; the Johansen estimator, which has the cross-equation restriction that the long-run coefficient in the two equations is the same; the system pooled mean group estimator, which has a homogeneous long-run coefficient over countries and heterogeneous short-run dynamics, and a univariate real exchange rate equation used to obtain median unbiased estimates of the half-life.

Suggested Citation

  • Ong, Kian, 2024. "Adjusting toward long-run purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:149:y:2024:i:c:s0261560624001918
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103204
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Purchasing power parity; Exchange rates; Relative prices; Adjustment; Heterogeneous panels; Long-span data; Cross-section dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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