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Aggregation is not the solution: the PPP puzzle strikes back

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  • M. Dolores Gadea

    (University of Zaragoza, Spain)

  • Laura Mayoral

    (Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract

Recently, Imbs, Mumtaz, Ravn and Rey (2005, hereinafter IMRR) have argued that much of the purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle is due to upwardly biased estimates of persistence. According to them, the source of the bias is the existence of heterogeneous price adjustment dynamics at the sectoral level that established time series or panel data methods fail to control for. This paper re-examines this claim in two steps. Firstly, we demonstrate that IMRR's measures of sectoral persistence are systematically downwardly biased because they are based on an inaccurate definition of the 'average' impulse response function (IRF). We then show that standard estimates of shock persistence are recovered after this bias is corrected. Secondly, building on the results in Mayoral (2008), which prove that aggregate and micro models induce the same shock persistence behavior, we show that estimates based on aggregate and sectoral exchange rates are, in fact, highly consistent. Thus, aggregation is not the solution to the PPP puzzle. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2009. "Aggregation is not the solution: the PPP puzzle strikes back," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 875-894.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:24:y:2009:i:6:p:875-894
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.1078
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: accounting for changes in the eurozone trade structure," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 835-858, November.
    2. Mayoral, Laura & Dolores Gadea, María, 2011. "Aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 290-304.
    3. Nicolas Cachanosky, 2014. "The Mises-Hayek business cycle theory, fiat currencies and open economies," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 281-299, September.
    4. Ming-Jen Chang, 2016. "Half-Life Deviations From Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence From Pacific Rim Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Ming-Jen Chang & Chang-Ching Lin & Shou-Yung Yin, 2013. "The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates: The Case of Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 530-545, October.
    6. Laura Mayoral, 2013. "Heterogeneous Dynamics, Aggregation, And The Persistence Of Economic Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1295-1307, November.
    7. Rehim Kılıç, 2009. "Nonlinearity and Persistence in PPP: Does Controlling for Nonlinearity Solve the PPP Puzzle?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 570-587, August.
    8. Laura Mayoral & Maria Dolores Gadea, 2009. "Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 787.09, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).

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