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Assessing Residual Seasonality in the U.S. National Income and Product Account Aggregates

Author

Listed:
  • Baoline Chen
  • Tucker McElroy
  • Osbert Pang

    (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Abstract

There is an ongoing debate on whether residual seasonality is present in the estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in U.S. national accounts and whether it explains the slower quarter-one GDP growth rate in the recent years. This paper aims to bring clarity to this topic by 1) summarizing the techniques and methodologies used in these studies; 2) arguing for a sound methodological framework for evaluating claims of residual seasonality; and 3) proposing three diagnostic tests for detecting residual seasonality, applying them to different vintages and different sample spans of data on real GDP and its major components from the U.S. national accounts and making comparisons with results from the previous studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Baoline Chen & Tucker McElroy & Osbert Pang, 2021. "Assessing Residual Seasonality in the U.S. National Income and Product Account Aggregates," BEA Working Papers 0186, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:bea:wpaper:0186
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Canova, Fabio & Hansen, Bruce E, 1995. "Are Seasonal Patterns Constant over Time? A Test for Seasonal Stability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 237-252, July.
    2. Franses, Philip Hans, 1994. "A multivariate approach to modeling univariate seasonal time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 133-151, July.
    3. Chris Blakely & Tucker McElroy, 2017. "Signal extraction goodness-of-fit diagnostic tests under model parameter uncertainty: Formulations and empirical evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 447-467, April.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts

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