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Reliability of the State Personal Income Estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Robert L. Brown
  • Bruce T. Grimm
  • Marian B. Sacks

    (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Abstract

A new study by BEA finds that the quarterly estimates of state personal income were reliable indicators in the period 1991-2001. That is, they were generally successful in indicating whether a state’s economy was expanding or contracting, whether a state’s economy was accelerating or decelerating, and whether a state’s economy was growing at rates that were above, below, or near long-term trend. As a result, the estimates presented a consistent picture of a state’s economic growth. The paper is similar to an article in the December issue of the Survey of Current Business, but contains an expanded discussion of the sources and methods used by BEA to prepare the estimates, with particular emphasis on wages and salaries. Also, analysis in a new appendix finds that for most states there is a tendency to revise estimates of personal income toward longer-term trend growth rates and toward the national growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert L. Brown & Bruce T. Grimm & Marian B. Sacks, 2004. "Reliability of the State Personal Income Estimates," BEA Papers 0034, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:bea:papers:0034
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf, 2001. "Do provisional estimates of output miss economic turning points?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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