IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/282.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Es lineal la Curva de Phillips en Colombia?

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Nigrinis Ospina

Abstract

Este trabajo presenta evidencia empírica sobre la no linealidad de la curva de Phillips en Colombia partiendo de la hipótesis de capacidad restringida. Así mismo, los resultados sugieren un desplazamiento de la curva hacia abajo a partir de 1999. De esta manera la economía colombiana puede haber encontrado un menor nivel de inflación bajo condiciones de pleno empleo de los factores. La técnica econométrica que se empleó para probar la hipótesis fue el Filtro de Kalman con párametro variable en el tiempo. Los aportes del trabajo al estado del arte del estudio de la curva de Phillips en Colombia son tres. Primero la técnica de estimación utilizada. Segundo se prueba la existencia de asimetrías a partir de la hipótesis de capacidad restringida. Finalmente se encuentra un nivel de UCI de inflación estable.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Nigrinis Ospina, 2004. "Es lineal la Curva de Phillips en Colombia?," Borradores de Economia 282, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:282
    DOI: 10.32468/be.282
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.282
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.282?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Tiff Macklem, 1997. "Capacity constraints, price adjustment, and monetary policy," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1997(Spring), pages 39-56.
    3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1984. "The Real Interest Rate: A Multi-Country Empirical Study," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 283-311, May.
    4. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, 2000. "An Estimation of the Nonlinear Philips Curve in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1975, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    6. Ravi Balakrishnan & J David Lopez-Salido, 2002. "Understanding UK inflation: the role of openness," Bank of England working papers 164, Bank of England.
    7. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112.
    8. Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 1998. "Un examen empírico de la curva de Phillips en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 17(34), pages 39-87, December.
    9. Javier Gómez., 2003. "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 21(43), pages 66-85, June.
    10. Hamilton, James D, 1985. "Uncovering Financial Market Expectations of Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1224-1241, December.
    11. Frederic S Mishkin & Miguel A Savastano, 2002. "Monetary Policy Strategies For Emerging Market Countries: Lessons From Latin America," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 44(2-3), pages 45-82, September.
    12. Martha Misas A. & Diego Mauricio Vásquez, 2002. "Expectativas De Inflación En Colombia: Un Ejercicio Econométrico," Borradores de Economia 2693, Banco de la Republica.
    13. Juan Carlos Echeverry & Marcela Eslava M., 1997. "Notas sobre la Tasa de Interés y la Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3280, Banco de la Republica.
    14. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March.
    15. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Monetary Policy Implementation and Results in Twenty Inflation-Targeting Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 166, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    17. Miguel St. Aubyn, 2000. "Testing for Asymmetry in the Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off: Some Evidence for the USA," Working Papers Department of Economics 2000/05, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    18. Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David & Tambakis, Demosthenes, 1999. "The U.S. Phillips curve: The case for asymmetry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1459-1485, September.
    19. Paul Conway & Ben Hunt, 1997. "Estimating potential output: a semi-structural approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    20. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August.
    21. Flint Brayton & John M. Roberts & John C. Williams, 1999. "What's happened to the Phillips curve?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Chantal Dupasquier & Nicholas Ricketts, 1998. "Non-Linearities in the Output-Inflation Relationship: Some Empirical Results for Canada," Staff Working Papers 98-14, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luis Fernando Melo & Héctor Núñez, 2004. "Combinación de Pronósticos de la Inflación en Presencia de cambios Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 286, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Oscar reinaldo Becerra Camargo, 2005. "Medidas de Riesgo, Características y Técnicas de Medición: Una Aplicación del VAR y el ES a la Tasa Interbancaria de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 343, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velnadia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, 2007. "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," Borradores de Economia 4247, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Luis Fernando Melo & Rubén Albeiro Loaiza Maya, 2012. "Bayesian Forecast Combination for Inflation Using Rolling Windows: An Emerging Country Case," Borradores de Economia 705, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Héctor Mauricio Nunez Amortegui, 2005. "Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3603, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June.
    3. David G. Mayes & Matti Virén, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Macroeconomics 0404024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. corrinne ho & robert n mccauley, 2004. "Living with flexible exchange rates:," International Finance 0411003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. José Luis Torres, 2006. "Modelos para la Inflación Básica de Bienes Transables y No Transables en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3246, Banco de la Republica.
    6. Sarah Lein & Eva Koeberl, 2009. "Capacity utilisation, constraints and price adjustments under the microscope," KOF Working papers 09-239, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    7. Rodrigo Avella, 2001. "Efecto de las Sequías Sobre la Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 183, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? the International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 2005/163, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, 2003. "Transmission Mechanism and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia's Desinflation," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 18(2), pages 109-133, December.
    10. Wai-Ching Poon & Gee-Kok Tong, 2009. "The feasibility of inflation targeting in Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1035-1045.
    11. Thorarinn G. Petursson, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and its Effects on Macroeconomic Performance," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2005/5 edited by Morten Balling, May.
    12. repec:zbw:bofism:2005_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Renaud St-Cyr, 2018. "Non-linéarité de la courbe de Phillips : un survol de la littérature," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-3, Bank of Canada.
    14. Saborowski, Christian, 2010. "Inflation targeting as a means of achieving disinflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2510-2532, December.
    15. Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Is the Short-run Phillips Curve Nonlinear? Empirical Evidence for Australia, Sweden and the United States," Working Paper Series 124, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    16. repec:udc:esteco:v:44:y:2017:i:2:p:97-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Ibrahim AWAD, 2013. "Challenges For Adopting Inflation Targeting Regime In Egypt," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 11, pages 59-81, June.
    18. Luis F. Céspedes & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Credibility and Inflation Targeting in an Emerging Market: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 312, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Siregar, Reza Yamora & Goo, Siwei, 2010. "Effectiveness and commitment to inflation targeting policy: Evidence from Indonesia and Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 113-128, April.
    20. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "What Does the UK's Monetary Policy and Inflation Experience Tell Us About the Transmission Mechanism?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3047, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2010. "Contracting models of the Phillips curve empirical estimates for middle-income countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 555-570, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Curva de Phillips; Brecha de utilización de Capacidad Instalada; Asimetría;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.