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A Functional Approach to Test Trending Volatility

Author

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  • Hernández del Valle Gerardo
  • Juárez-Torres Miriam
  • Guerrero Santiago

Abstract

In this paper we extend the traditional GARCH(1,1) model by including a functional trend term in the conditional volatility of a time series. We derive the main properties of the model and apply it to all agricultural commodities in the Mexican CPI basket, as well as to the international prices of maize, wheat, pork, poultry and beef products for three different time periods that implied changes in price regulations and behavior. The proposed model seems to adequately fit the volatility process and, according to homoscedasticity tests, outperforms the ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1) models, some of the most popular approaches used in the literature to analyze price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernández del Valle Gerardo & Juárez-Torres Miriam & Guerrero Santiago, 2016. "A Functional Approach to Test Trending Volatility," Working Papers 2016-04, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2016-04
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    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publications-and-press/banco-de-mexico-working-papers/%7B91C9313C-8C79-6CA3-7D00-74CF296192CD%7D.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 800-813, August.
    2. Christian Bauer, 2007. "A Better Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock and Exchange Rate Returns: Trend-GARCH," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 65-87.
    3. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guerrero-Escobar Santiago & Hernández-del-Valle Gerardo & Hernández Vega Marco & De-la-Mora Paula, 2023. "The Stock Market Effects of Committing and Setting GHG Targets: Evidence from the Science-Based Initiative," Working Papers 2023-15, Banco de México.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural prices; volatility; GARCH models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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