IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_897_24.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The potential macroeconomic relevance of critical materials: some preliminary evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Taboga

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

The demand for key critical materials is expanding rapidly due to the growing adoption of renewable energy technologies. We explore whether the markets for these materials have reached, or will soon reach, an economic significance that would justify monitoring by central banks (e.g. for inflation forecasting purposes). Our findings indicate that the total value of critical materials produced globally remains relatively small, especially for those used in green technologies. However, in scenarios involving rapid progress towards net-zero emissions and strong demand pressures, the market for critical materials could reach a size comparable to that of the natural gas market. We discuss how, in such scenarios, characteristics of energy-critical materials such as substitution potential, price volatility, degree of criticality and demand elasticity will contribute to determine their macroeconomic relevance.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Taboga, 2024. "The potential macroeconomic relevance of critical materials: some preliminary evidence," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 897, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_897_24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2024-0897/QEF_897_24.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Violaine Faubert & Nathan Guess & Julien Le Roux, 2024. "Capital in the Twenty-First Century: Who Owns the Capital of Firms Producing Critical Raw Materials?," Working papers 952, Banque de France.
    2. Bolotova, Yuliya & Connor, John M. & Miller, Douglas J., 2008. "The impact of collusion on price behavior: Empirical results from two recent cases," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1290-1307, November.
    3. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1004 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Simone Emiliozzi & Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2025. "The European Energy Crisis and the Consequences for the Global Natural Gas Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 46(1), pages 119-145, January.
    5. Harrington, Joseph Jr. & Chen, Joe, 2006. "Cartel pricing dynamics with cost variability and endogenous buyer detection," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1185-1212, November.
    6. Robert B. Barsky & Christopher L. House & Miles S. Kimball, 2007. "Sticky-Price Models and Durable Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 984-998, June.
    7. Hayes, Sarah M. & McCullough, Erin A., 2018. "Critical minerals: A review of elemental trends in comprehensive criticality studies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 192-199.
    8. Nicolas Legrand, 2019. "The Empirical Merit Of Structural Explanations Of Commodity Price Volatility: Review And Perspectives," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 639-664, April.
    9. Geman, Hélyette & Smith, William O., 2013. "Theory of storage, inventory and volatility in the LME base metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 18-28.
    10. Blanckenburg Korbinian von & Kholodilin Konstantin A. & Geist Alexander, 2012. "The Influence of Collusion on Price Changes: New Evidence from Major Cartel Cases," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 13(3), pages 245-256, August.
    11. Claude B. Erb & Campbell R. Harvey, 2006. "The Strategic and Tactical Value of Commodity Futures," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(2), pages 69-97, March.
    12. Daw, Georges, 2017. "Security of mineral resources: A new framework for quantitative assessment of criticality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 173-189.
    13. Lukas Boer & Andrea Pescatori & Martin Stuermer, 2024. "Energy Transition Metals: Bottleneck for Net-Zero Emissions?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 200-229.
    14. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all? New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2606-2626, October.
    15. Ng, Victor K & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1994. "Fundamentals and Volatility: Storage, Spreads, and the Dynamics of Metals Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 203-230, April.
    16. Chen, Yu-Fu & Mu, Xiaoyi, 2021. "Asymmetric volatility in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Silveira, Douglas & Vasconcelos, Silvinha & Resende, Marcelo & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2022. "Won’t Get Fooled Again: A supervised machine learning approach for screening gasoline cartels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    2. Sercan Demiralay & Selcuk Bayraci & H. Gaye Gencer, 2019. "Time-varying diversification benefits of commodity futures," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1823-1853, June.
    3. Juan Jiménez & Jordi Perdiguero, 2012. "Does Rigidity of Prices Hide Collusion?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 41(3), pages 223-248, November.
    4. Martin Huber & David Imhof & Rieko Ishii, 2022. "Transnational machine learning with screens for flagging bid‐rigging cartels," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(3), pages 1074-1114, July.
    5. Yaseen GHULAM, 2018. "The Impact Of Reforms And Privatization On Firms’ Conduct In The Presence Of Interconnected Conglomerates And Weak And Inefficient Regulatory Institutions," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(4), pages 599-622, December.
    6. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1274 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bonnier, Jean-Baptiste, 2021. "Speculation and informational efficiency in commodity futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    8. Granlund, David & Rudholm, Niklas, 2023. "Calculating the probability of collusion based on observed price patterns," Umeå Economic Studies 1014, Umeå University, Department of Economics, revised 13 Oct 2023.
    9. Pham, Linh & Kamal, Javed Bin, 2024. "Blessings or curse: How do media climate change concerns affect commodity tail risk spillovers?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    10. David Imhof & Yavuz Karagök & SAMUEL RUTZ, 2017. "Screening for Bid-rigging. Does it Work?," Working Papers 2017-09, CRESE.
    11. Gaete, Michael & Herrera, Rodrigo, 2023. "Diversification benefits of commodities in portfolio allocation: A dynamic factor copula approach," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    12. Niaz Bashiri Behmiri & Maryam Ahmadi & Juha-Pekka Junttila & Matteo Manera, 2021. "Financial Stress and Basis in Energy Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 42(5), pages 67-88, September.
    13. Amar, Amine Ben & Goutte, Stéphane & Isleimeyyeh, Mohammad & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2022. "Commodity markets dynamics: What do cross-commodities over different nearest-to-maturities tell us?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Ma, Richie Ruchuan & Xiong, Tao, 2021. "Price explosiveness in nonferrous metal futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 75-90.
    15. Bejger, Sylwester, 2015. "Screening for collusion: Evidences from the Indian cement industry," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 11(2), pages 1-19.
    16. Tore S. Kleppe & Atle Oglend, 2019. "Can limits‐to‐arbitrage from bounded storage improve commodity term‐structure modeling?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 865-889, July.
    17. Symeonidis, Lazaros & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Brooks, Chris & Lazar, Emese, 2012. "Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2651-2663.
    18. Zhou, Na & Wu, Qiaosheng & Hu, Xiangping & Zhu, Yongguang & Su, Hui & Xue, Shuangjiao, 2020. "Synthesized indicator for evaluating security of strategic minerals in China: A case study of lithium," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    19. Bonnier, Jean-Baptiste, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil volatility with exogenous predictors: As good as it GETS?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    20. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2022. "Exploring the transmission mechanism of speculative and inventory arbitrage activity to commodity price volatility. Novel evidence for the US economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    21. Yuliya Bolotova & Christopher S. McIntosh & Paul E. Patterson & Kalamani Muthusamy, 2010. "Is stabilization of potato price effective? Empirical evidence from the Idaho Russet Burbank potato market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 177-201.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    critical materials; critical minerals; energy markets; clean energy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_897_24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.