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Nowcasting Italian industrial production: the predictive role of lubricant oils

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Fruzzetti

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Tiziano Ropele

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper examines the potential of industrial lubricant oils as a predictor for nowcasting the index of Italian industrial production. The results show that nowcast accuracy can be significantly enhanced during periods of economic turbulence, such as the 2021-22 energy crisis. Industrial lubricant oils are a more robust economic indicator than other commonly used energy-related timely predictors, such as industrial gas consumption. Furthermore, the findings may prove relevant for nowcasting industrial production in the process of structural changes, such as the ongoing green transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Fruzzetti & Tiziano Ropele, 2024. "Nowcasting Italian industrial production: the predictive role of lubricant oils," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 866, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_866_24
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2024-0866/QEF_866_24.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nowcasting; industrial production; energy; lubricants;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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