IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/2417.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Analysing the VAT cut pass-through in Spain using web-scraped supermarket data and machine learning

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolás Forteza

    (Banco de España)

  • Elvira Prades

    (Banco de España)

  • Marc Roca

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

On 28 December 2022, the Spanish government announced a temporary Value Added Tax (VAT) rate reduction for selected products. VAT rates were cut on 1 January 2023 and are expected to go back to their previous level by mid-2024. Using a web-scraped dataset, we leverage machine learning techniques to classify each product. Then we study the price effects of the temporary VAT rate reduction, covering the daily prices of roughly 10,000 food products sold online by a Spanish supermarket. To identify the causal price effects, we compare the evolution of prices for treated items (that is, subject to the tax policy) against a control group (food items outside the policy’s scope). Our findings indicate that, at the supermarket level, the pass-through was almost complete. We observe differences in the speed of pass-through across different product types.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolás Forteza & Elvira Prades & Marc Roca, 2024. "Analysing the VAT cut pass-through in Spain using web-scraped supermarket data and machine learning," Working Papers 2417, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2417
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/36652
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbe/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/24/Files/dt2417e.pdf
    File Function: First version, May 2024
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.53479/36652?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erwan Gautier & Magali Marx & Paul Vertier, 2023. "How Do Gasoline Prices Respond to a Cost Shock?," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(4), pages 707-741.
    2. Irene Monasterolo, 2023. "How inflation varies across Spanish households," Occasional Papers 2307, Banco de España.
    3. AMORES Antonio F. & BARRIOS Salvador & SPEITMANN Raffael & STOEHLKER Daniel, 2023. "Price Effects of Temporary VAT Rate Cuts: Evidence from Spanish Supermarkets," JRC Research Reports JRC132542, Joint Research Centre.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. Adam & O. Bonnet & E. Fize & T. Loisel & M. Rault & L. Wilner, 2023. "How does fuel demand respond to price changes? Quasi-experimental evidence based on high-frequency data," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers 2023-17, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    2. Dedola, Luca & Gautier, Erwan & Nakov, Anton & Santoro, Sergio & De Veirman, Emmanuel & Henkel, Lukas & Fagandini, Bruno, 2023. "Some implications of micro price-setting evidence for inflation dynamics and monetary transmission," Occasional Paper Series 321, European Central Bank.
    3. Odran Bonnet & Étienne Fize & Tristan Loisel & Lionel Wilner, 2024. "Is Carbon Tax Truly More Salient? Evidence from Fuel Tourism at the France-Germany Border," CESifo Working Paper Series 10918, CESifo.
    4. Szwacka-Mokrzycka Joanna & Marzena Lemanowicz, 2023. "The Influence of Inflation on the Economic Situation of Households in Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 119-132.
    5. Cavallo, Alberto & Lippi, Francesco & Miyahara, Ken, 2023. "Large shocks travel fast," CEPR Discussion Papers 18413, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Cavallo, Alberto & Lippi, Francesco & Miyahara, Ken, 2023. "Large shocks travel fast," CEPR Discussion Papers 18413, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Nicolás Forteza & Elvira Prades & Marc Roca, 2024. "Analysing the VAT Cut Pass-Through in Spain Using Web Scraped Supermarket Data and Machine Learning," Working papers 951, Banque de France.
    8. Odran Bonnet & Étienne Fize & Tristan Loisel & Lionel Wilner, 2024. "Is Carbon Tax Truly More Salient? Evidence from Fuel Tourism at the France-Germany Border," CESifo Working Paper Series 10918, CESifo.
    9. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Van Droogenbroeck, Ellen, 2024. "Temporary VAT rate cuts and food prices in e-commerce," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    price rigidity; inflation; consumer prices; heterogeneity; microdata; VAT pass-through;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2417. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ángel Rodríguez. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdegves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.