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Determinants of default ratios in the segment of loans to households in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Blanco

    (Banco de España)

  • Ricardo Gimeno

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

In this paper we present the estimation results of a dynamic panel data model that explains the dynamic behaviour of default ratios in Spain for loans extended to the household sector. We estimate the models for two alternative definitions of default and for two different loan categories. The dataset consists of a panel of 50 provinces and covers the period 1984-2009. The results of the models show that the dynamic behaviour of the default ratios of loans extended to Spanish households can be reasonably well characterised with the lagged LHS variable, and the contemporaneous and the lagged values of credit growth, the unemployment rate and the interest debt burden. We find that the increase in the unemployment rate was the main driver of the sharp rise in default ratios between 2007 and 2009 in Spain and that the fall in interest rates since the end of 2008 contributed to moderating the upward path of default ratios in 2009. We also find that there is strong evidence of asymmetrical effects of unemployment ratios on default ratios, and differences between banks and savings banks in their sensitivity to the cycle

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Blanco & Ricardo Gimeno, 2012. "Determinants of default ratios in the segment of loans to households in Spain," Working Papers 1210, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1210
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/12/Fich/dt1210e.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Orla May & Merxe Tudela, 2005. "When is mortgage indebtedness a financial burden to British households? A dynamic probit approach," Bank of England working papers 277, Bank of England.
    2. Catarina Figueira & John Glen & Joseph Nellis, 2005. "A Dynamic Analysis of Mortgage Arrears in the UK Housing Market," Urban/Regional 0509006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Rinaldi, Laura & Sanchis-Arellano, Alicia, 2006. "Household debt sustainability: what explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 570, European Central Bank.
    4. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michela Pelizza & Klaus R. Schenk-Hoppé, 2020. "Pricing Defaulted Italian Mortgages," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, February.
    2. Lenarčič, Črt, 2022. "Drivers of household arrears: an euro area country panel data analysis," MPRA Paper 114558, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Spain: Vulnerabilities of Private Sector Balance Sheets and Risks to the Financial Sector Technical Notes," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/140, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Gila-Gourgoura, E. & Nikolaidou, E., 2017. "Credit Risk Determinants in the Vulnerable Economies of Europe: Evidence from the Spanish Banking System," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 10(1), pages 60-71, March.
    5. Stanga, Irina & Vlahu, Razvan & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "Mortgage arrears, regulation and institutions: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. Aller, Carlos & Grant, Charles, 2018. "The effect of the financial crisis on default by Spanish households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 39-52.
    7. Stanga, Irina & Vlahu, Razvan & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "Mortgage arrears, regulation and institutions: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default ratios; non-performing loans; household finances; financial pressure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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