IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/2006570.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Household debt sustainability: what explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Rinaldi, Laura
  • Sanchis-Arellano, Alicia

Abstract

Sound household financial conditions are relevant for both financial and monetary stability. Therefore, we analyse household financial fragility in a sample of euro area countries with the aim to shed some light on the nature of the large debt increase accumulated in recent years. We focus on household arrears on payment obligations, which are one of the most direct measures of financial stress of the sector. The probability of falling into arrears is derived from a life-cycle type of model and is investigated empirically using a cross-section and time series approach. We analyse cointegration and model arrears within an errorcorrection framework. The results suggest that the financial conditions of households might become more vulnerable to adverse shocks in their income and wealth. JEL Classification: C23, G21, D14

Suggested Citation

  • Rinaldi, Laura & Sanchis-Arellano, Alicia, 2006. "Household debt sustainability: what explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 570, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006570
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp570.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antzoulatos, Angelos A., 1996. "Consumer credit and consumption forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 439-453, December.
    2. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-346, April.
    3. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    4. Sebastian Barnes & Garry Young, 2003. "The rise in US household debt: assessing its causes and sustainability," Bank of England working papers 206, Bank of England.
    5. F J Breedon & M A S Joyce, 1993. "House prices, arrears and possessions: A three equation model for the UK," Bank of England working papers 14, Bank of England.
    6. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    7. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
    8. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    9. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    10. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2008. "The credit channel of monetary policy: Evidence from the housing market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 69-96, March.
    11. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    12. Christopher D. Carroll & Wendy E. Dunn, 1997. "Unemployment Expectations, Jumping (S,s) Triggers, and Household Balance Sheets," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 165-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Chan, Yuk-Shee & Thakor, Anjan V, 1987. "Collateral and Competitive Equilibria with Moral Hazard and Private Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 345-363, June.
    14. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
    15. Besanko, David & Thakor, Anjan V, 1987. "Collateral and Rationing: Sorting Equilibria in Monopolistic and Competitive Credit Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 671-689, October.
    16. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. John Whitley & Richard Windram & Prudence Cox, 2004. "An empirical model of household arrears," Bank of England working papers 214, Bank of England.
    18. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Baltagi, Badi H. & Griffin, James M., 1997. "Pooled estimators vs. their heterogeneous counterparts in the context of dynamic demand for gasoline," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 303-327, April.
    20. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    21. Dean M. Maki, 2000. "The growth of consumer credit and the household debt service burden," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2011. "Bank lending and commercial property cycles: Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, February.
    23. Laurence Boone & Nathalie Girouard & Isabelle Wanner, 2001. "Financial Market Liberalisation, Wealth and Consumption," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 308, OECD Publishing.
    24. Philippe Aghion & Patrick Bolton, 1992. "An Incomplete Contracts Approach to Financial Contracting," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(3), pages 473-494.
    25. Gabe de Bondt, 1999. "Credit channels and consumption in Europe: empirical evidence," BIS Working Papers 69, Bank for International Settlements.
    26. Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran, 1998. "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    27. Davis, E. Philip, 1995. "Debt, Financial Fragility, and Systemic Risk," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198233312.
    28. repec:fth:jonhop:386 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Nathalie Girouard & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 2001. "House Prices and Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 279, OECD Publishing.
    30. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    31. Bester, Helmut, 1985. "Screening vs. Rationing in Credit Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 850-855, September.
    32. Sydney Ludvigson, 1999. "Consumption And Credit: A Model Of Time-Varying Liquidity Constraints," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 434-447, August.
    33. Donald P. Morgan & Ian Toll, 1997. "Bad debt rising," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Mar).
    34. Bacchetta, Philippe & Gerlach, Stefan, 1997. "Consumption and credit constraints: International evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 207-238, October.
    35. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Guy Debelle, 2004. "Household debt and the macroeconomy," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    37. Chan, Yuk-Shee & Kanatas, George, 1985. "Asymmetric Valuations and the Role of Collateral in Loan Agreements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 84-95, February.
    38. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, October –.
    2. Aoki, Kosuke & Proudman, James & Vlieghe, Gertjan, 2004. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 414-435, October.
    3. Bacchetta, Philippe & Gerlach, Stefan, 1997. "Consumption and credit constraints: International evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 207-238, October.
    4. Jimenez, Gabriel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2191-2212, September.
    5. Drakos, Konstantinos & Giannakopoulos, Nicholas, 2011. "On the determinants of credit rationing: Firm-level evidence from transition countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1773-1790.
    6. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2004. "Consumption, house prices, and collateral constraints: a structural econometric analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 304-320, December.
    7. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say "Probably Not"," Working Papers 2016/08, Czech National Bank.
    8. Michael Manove & A. Jorge Padilla & Marco Pagano, 1998. "Collateral vs. Project Screening: A Model of Lazy Banks," CSEF Working Papers 10, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    9. Orazio P. Attanasio, 1998. "Consumption Demand," NBER Working Papers 6466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    11. Curtiss, Jarmila, 2012. "Determinants of Financial Capital Use: Review of theories and implications for rural businesses," Factor Markets Working Papers 123, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    12. Ioannidou, Vasso & Pavanini, Nicola & Peng, Yushi, 2022. "Collateral and asymmetric information in lending markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 93-121.
    13. Tuomas Malinen, 2011. "Income Inequality and Savings: A Reassessment of the Relationship in Cointegrated Panels," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_076, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    14. Besley, Tim & Surico, Paolo & Meads, Neil, 2008. "Household External Finance and Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 6934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Anna Florio, 2013. "The Implied Consumer Euler Rate: What Role for Financial Frictions?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(4), pages 650-675, December.
    16. Tuomas, Malinen, 2011. "Inequality and savings: a reassesment of the relationship in cointegrated panels," MPRA Paper 33350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. S. Viswanathan & Adriano A. Rampini, 2008. "Collateral, Financial Intermediation, and the Distribution of Debt Capacity," 2008 Meeting Papers 116, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Aivazian, Varouj & Gu, Xinhua & Qiu, Jiaping & Huang, Bihong, 2015. "Loan collateral, corporate investment, and business cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 380-392.
    19. Kholodilin Konstantin A. & Menz Jan-Oliver & Siliverstovs Boriss, 2010. "What Drives Housing Prices Down? Evidence from an International Panel," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(1), pages 59-76, February.
    20. Qian, Xuesong & Ding, Zifang & Cao, Xiaping & Qi, Shusen, 2020. "Cross-ownership and collateral in lending," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    default; household debt sustainability; non-performing loans; panel cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006570. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.