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The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets

Author

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  • Lucía Cuadro Sáez

    (Banco de España)

  • Marcel Fratzscher

    (European Central Bank)

  • Christian Thimann

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

The paper analyses whether, and to what extent, emerging market economies (EMEs) have systemic importance for global financial markets, above and beyond their influence during crises episodes. Using a novel database of exogenous economic and political shocks for 14 EMEs, we find that EME shocks not only have a statistically but also economically significant impact on global equity markets. The economic significance of EME shocks is in particular underlined by their remarkably persistent effects over time. Importantly, EMEs are found to influence global equity markets about just as much in "good" times as in "bad" times, i.e. during crises or periods of financial turbulence. Finally, we detect a large degree of heterogeneity in the transmission of EME shocks to individual countries’ equity markets, stressing the different degrees of financial exposure, which is relatively higher for European equity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucía Cuadro Sáez & Marcel Fratzscher & Christian Thimann, 2007. "The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets," Working Papers 0727, Banco de España.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0727
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    2. Ndiweni, Zinzile Lorna & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2022. "Contagion or decoupling? Evidence from emerging stock markets," MPRA Paper 115170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sharada Nia Davidson, 2022. "Regional Integration and Decoupling in the Asia Pacific: A Bayesian Panel VAR Approach," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 773-807, December.
    4. Yushi Yoshida, 2009. "Financial crisis, exchange rate and stock market integration," Discussion Papers 38, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
    5. Hans J. Blommestein & Javier Santiso, 2007. "New Strategies for Emerging Domestic Sovereign Bond Markets," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 260, OECD Publishing.
    6. Manganelli, Simone & Wolswijk, Guido, 2007. "Market discipline, financial integration and fiscal rules: what drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Working Paper Series 745, European Central Bank.
    7. Yushi Yoshida, 2010. "Is this time different for Asia?: Evidence from stock Markets," Discussion Papers 40, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
    8. Samarakoon, Lalith P., 2017. "Contagion of the eurozone debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 115-128.
    9. Shi, Yujie & Wang, Liming, 2023. "Comparing the impact of Chinese and U.S. economic policy uncertainty on the volatility of major global stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Mpoha, Salifya, 2024. "Spillover effects from China and the United States to Key Regional Emerging Markets: A dynamic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    11. Oikonomikou, Leoni Eleni, 2018. "Modeling financial market volatility in transition markets: a multivariate case," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 307-322.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2007/259, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Hoffmann, Andreas & Schnabl, Gunther, 2016. "Monetary policies of industrial countries, emerging market credit cycles and feedback effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 855-873.
    14. Camilleri, Silvio John & Galea, Francelle, 2019. "The Determinants of Securities Trading Activity: Evidence from four European Equity Markets," MPRA Paper 95298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ceylan Onay & Gözde Ünal, 2012. "Cointegration and Extreme Value Analyses of Bovespa and the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(1), pages 66-90, February.
    16. Alper Gormus, N., 2016. "Do different time-horizons in volatility have any significance for the emerging markets?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 29-32.
    17. Bartosz Gębka & Michail Karoglou, 2013. "Is there life in the old dogs yet? Making break-tests work on financial contagion," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 485-507, April.
    18. Gormus, N. Alper & Soytas, Ugur & Diltz, J. David, 2014. "Volatility transmission between energy-related asset classes," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 246-259.
    19. Bartosz Gębka, 2012. "The Dynamic Relation Between Returns, Trading Volume, And Volatility: Lessons From Spillovers Between Asia And The United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 65-90, January.
    20. Martin Ademmer & Wolfram Horn & Josefine Quast, 2022. "Stock market dynamics and the relative importance of domestic, foreign, and common shocks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3911-3923, October.
    21. André Marine Charlotte & Medina Espidio Sebastián, 2022. "Optimal Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2022-17, Banco de México.
    22. Gormus, N. Alper & Atinc, Guclu, 2016. "Volatile oil and the U.S. economy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 62-73.
    23. Gemici, Eray & Gök, Remzi & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Predictability of risk appetite in Turkey: Local versus global factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global financial markets; equity markets; transmission; financial integration; shocks; news; emerging market economies; mature economics; euro area; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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