IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kyu/dpaper/38.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial crisis, exchange rate and stock market integration

Author

Listed:
  • Yushi Yoshida

    (Faculty of Economics, Kyushu Sangyo University)

Abstract

After the financial crisis originating from the collapse of the US housing market in 2007, financial markets, including stock markets and foreign exchange markets, experienced drastic fluctuations during an adjustment stage. We examine how the financial crisis affected the linkage between foreign exchange markets and stock markets. First, by examining the daily stock market returns of both Japan and the United States for the sample covering the 2007-2008 financial crisis, we test whether there is a shift in correlation in a smooth-transition correlation GARCH model. We find strong evidence that there was an abrupt upward shift in correlation in June of 2001. There may have been another upward shift of correlation in June of 2008, although the evidence is statistically weak. Second, after adding the JPY/USD exchange rate into a model, we find little correlation between returns of exchange rate and the Japanese stock market, although evidence indicates that there is two-way causality effect between the exchange rate and the Japanese stock market in a VAR framework. This paper provides evidence that a large financial shock may bring financial markets around the world closer to one another.

Suggested Citation

  • Yushi Yoshida, 2009. "Financial crisis, exchange rate and stock market integration," Discussion Papers 38, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kyu:dpaper:38
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ip.kyusan-u.ac.jp/keizai-kiyo/dp38.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009Dec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    2. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    3. Cuadro-Sáez, Lucía & Fratzscher, Marcel & Thimann, Christian, 2009. "The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 2-17, January.
    4. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    5. Xiao‐Ming Li, 2006. "A Revisit Of International Stock Market Linkages: New Evidence From Rank Tests For Nonlinear Cointegration," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(2), pages 174-197, May.
    6. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia L., 2005. "Modeling equity market integration using smooth transition analysis: A study of Eastern European stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 818-831, September.
    7. Berben, Robert-Paul & Jansen, W. Jos, 2005. "Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 832-857, September.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    9. Ping Wang & Tomoe Moore, 2008. "Stock Market Integration For The Transition Economies: Time‐Varying Conditional Correlation Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(s1), pages 116-133, September.
    10. Tim Bollerslev, 1988. "On The Correlation Structure For The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic Process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 121-131, March.
    11. Tse, Y. K., 2000. "A test for constant correlations in a multivariate GARCH model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 107-127, September.
    12. Jian Yang & Moosa M. Khan & Lucille Pointer, 2003. "Increasing Integration Between the United States and Other International Stock Markets? : A Recursive Cointegration Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 39-53, November.
    13. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
    14. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
    15. Bera, Anil K. & Kim, Sangwhan, 2002. "Testing constancy of correlation and other specifications of the BGARCH model with an application to international equity returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 171-195, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yushi Yoshida, 2010. "Is this time different for Asia?: Evidence from stock Markets," Discussion Papers 40, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
    2. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2019. "Remittances, bilateral trade and linkage between foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 65-74, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yushi Yoshida, 2010. "Is this time different for Asia?: Evidence from stock Markets," Discussion Papers 40, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
    2. Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Ter�svirta, 2015. "Modeling Conditional Correlations of Asset Returns: A Smooth Transition Approach," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 174-197, February.
    3. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2007. "Multivariate GARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 669, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 18 Jan 2008.
    4. Tarciso Gouveia da Silva & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & George Augusto Noronha Morcerf & Andre de Melo Modenesi, 2020. "Effects of Monetary Policy News on Financial Assets: evidence from Brazil on a bivariate VAR-GARCH model (2006-17)," Working Papers Series 536, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Lahrech, Abdelmounaim & Sylwester, Kevin, 2011. "U.S. and Latin American stock market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1341-1357.
    6. Thomas Chiang & Jiandong Li & Sheng-Yung Yang, 2015. "Dynamic stock–bond return correlations and financial market uncertainty," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 59-88, July.
    7. M. Fatih Oztek & Nadir Ocal, 2012. "Integration of China Stock Markets with International Stock Markets: An application of Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation with Double Transition Functions," ERC Working Papers 1209, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2012.
    8. da Silva, Tarciso Gouveia & de Carvalho Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Morcerf, George Augusto Noronha & de Melo Modenesi, Andre, 2022. "Effects of monetary policy news on financial assets: Evidence from Brazil on a bivariate VAR-GARCH model (2006–17)," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2005. "Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Smooth Transitions in Conditional Correlations," Research Paper Series 168, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. Nadine McCloud & Yongmiao Hong, 2011. "Testing The Structure Of Conditional Correlations In Multivariate Garch Models: A Generalized Cross‐Spectrum Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 991-1037, November.
    11. Gagari Chakrabarti, 2011. "Financial crisis and the changing nature of volatility contagion in the Asia-Pacific region," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(3), pages 172-184, August.
    12. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    13. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Shamsuddin, Abul & Easton, Steve, 2014. "Dynamic correlation analysis of spill-over effects of interest rate risk and return on Australian and US financial firms," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 378-396.
    14. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, January.
    15. Kin-Yip Ho & Albert K Tsui, 2008. "Volatility Dynamics in Foreign Exchange Rates : Further Evidence from the Malaysian Ringgit and Singapore Dollar," Finance Working Papers 22571, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    16. Tomoaki Nakatani & Timo Terasvirta, 2009. "Testing for volatility interactions in the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 147-163, March.
    17. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2015. "Spillover effects of the U.S. financial crisis on financial markets in emerging Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 192-210.
    18. Shogbuyi, Abiodun & Steeley, James M., 2017. "The effect of quantitative easing on the variance and covariance of the UK and US equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 281-291.
    19. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Dungey, Mardi & Savva, Christos S., 2008. "Progress Towards to Equity Market Integration in Eastern Europe," Working Papers 2072/13265, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    20. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2006. "The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 827-853, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Financial crisis; Japan and US; Smooth transition; Stock market integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kyu:dpaper:38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yoshitsugu Kitazawa (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feksujp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.