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UK Trade in the Wake of Brexit

Author

Listed:
  • Freeman, Rebecca

    (CEP)

  • Manova, Kalina

    (University College London, CEPR and CEP)

  • Prayer, Thomas

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Sampson, Thomas

    (London School of Economics, CEPR and CEP)

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of Brexit on the UK’s trade with the EU relative to its trade with the rest of the world. We find no evidence that uncertainty and anticipation effects led to a significant decline in relative UK trade with the EU during the period after the UK voted for Brexit in 2016 and before the change in policy was implemented under the new Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) in 2021. However, the UK’s departure from the EU’s single market and customs union at the start of 2021 caused a major shock to UK-EU trade. We estimate that the new TCA trade relationship led to a sudden and persistent 25% fall in relative UK imports from the EU. In contrast, we find a smaller and only temporary decline in relative UK exports to the EU, but nevertheless a large and sustained drop in the extensive margin of exports, driven by the exit of low-value relationships. The timing and asymmetry of Brexit effects on UK imports and exports is puzzling and provides evidence of important differences in adjustment to integration and disintegration shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Freeman, Rebecca & Manova, Kalina & Prayer, Thomas & Sampson, Thomas, 2022. "UK Trade in the Wake of Brexit," Single Market Economics Papers WP2022/12, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    • Handle: RePEc:bda:wpsmep:wp2022/12
    DOI: 10.2873/888076
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bakker, Jan & Datta, Nikhil & Davies, Richard & De Lyon, Joshua, 2022. "Non-tariff barriers and consumer prices: evidence from Brexit," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118040, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Swati Dhingra & Thomas Sampson, 2022. "Expecting Brexit," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 495-519, August.
    3. de Lucio, Juan & Mínguez, Raúl & Minondo, Asier & Requena, Francisco, 2024. "The negative impact of disintegration on trade: The case of Brexit," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    4. Jelliffe, Jeremy & Gerval, Adam & Husby, Megan & Jarrell, Philip & Williams, Brian, 2023. "United Kingdom Agricultural Production and Trade Policy Post-Brexit," USDA Miscellaneous 333547, United States Department of Agriculture.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General

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