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Brexit Uncertainty and its (Dis)Service Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Saad Ahmad
  • Nuno Limão
  • Sarah Oliver
  • Serge Shikher

Abstract

We estimate the impact of increased policy uncertainty from Brexit on UK trade in services. We apply an uncertainty-augmented gravity equation to UK services trade with the European Union at the industry level from 2016Q1 to 2018Q4. By exploiting the variation in the probability of Brexit from prediction markets interacted with a new trade policy risk measure across service industries we identify a significant negative impact of the threat of Brexit on trade values and participation. The increased probability of Brexit in this period lowered services exports by at least 20 log points.

Suggested Citation

  • Saad Ahmad & Nuno Limão & Sarah Oliver & Serge Shikher, 2020. "Brexit Uncertainty and its (Dis)Service Effects," NBER Working Papers 28053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebastian Benz, 2017. "Services trade costs: Tariff equivalents of services trade restrictions using gravity estimation," OECD Trade Policy Papers 200, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ana Venâncio & João Pereira dos Santos, 2021. "The effect of Brexit on British workers living in the EU," Working Papers REM 2021/0197, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Mustapha Douch & Terence Huw Edwards, 2022. "The bilateral trade effects of announcement shocks: Brexit as a natural field experiment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 305-329, March.
    3. Martin, Julien & Mejean, Isabelle & Parenti, Mathieu, 2020. "Relationship stickiness, international trade, and economic uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 15609, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Freeman, Rebecca & Manova, Kalina & Prayer, Thomas & Sampson, Thomas, 2022. "UK trade in the wake of Brexit," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117855, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Steven Buigut & Burcu Kapar, 2023. "How did Brexit impact EU trade? Evidence from real data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(6), pages 1566-1581, June.
    6. Kim, Jang-Chul & Mazumder, Sharif & Su, Qing, 2024. "Brexit's ripple: Probing the impact on stock market liquidity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services

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