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PENELOPE: Luxembourg Tool for Pension Evaluation and Long-Term Projection Exercises

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  • Luca Marchiori

Abstract

This document presents the structure of PENELOPE, a macro-accounting tool aimed at examining the long-run sustainability of the Luxembourg pension system. PENELOPE complements othermodels studying the Luxembourg pension systemby proposing a disaggregated pension analysis in which demographic changes affect macroeconomic variables. The results of PENELOPE’s reference scenario are compared with those of other studies, while additional simulations focus on (i) the effects of different population projections and assumptions on cross-border worker inflows, (ii) the implications of the 2012 pension reform and of alternative proposals, as well as (iii) the evolution of the pension reserve under different scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Marchiori, 2020. "PENELOPE: Luxembourg Tool for Pension Evaluation and Long-Term Projection Exercises," BCL working papers 140, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp140
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    File URL: https://www.bcl.lu/en/publications/Working-papers/140/BCLWP140.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Muriel Bouchet & Luca Marchiori & Olivier Pierrard, 2014. "Déficit, croissance et bien-être intergénérationnel : Comment réformer les pensions au Luxembourg ?," BCL working papers 87, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    2. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    3. de la Croix, David & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2013. "Aging and pensions in general equilibrium: Labor market imperfections matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-124.
    4. de la Croix, David & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2013. "Aging and pensions in general equilibrium: Labor market imperfections matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-124.
    5. Luca MARCHIORI & Olivier PIERRARD & Henri R. SNEESSENS, 2017. "The EU-US Unemployment Puzzle Revisited : Insitutions, Demography, and Capital Flows," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(3), pages 259-305, September.
    6. Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2009. "Delaying Retirement in Spain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 147-167, January.
    7. Bouchet, Muriel & Marchiori, Luca & Pierrard, Olivier, 2017. "Pension reform in a worst case scenario: public finance versus political feasibility," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 173-204, April.
    8. Marchiori, Luca & Pierrard, Olivier, 2017. "How does global demand for financial services promote domestic growth in Luxembourg? A dynamic general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 103-123.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pension expenditure projections; demographic trends; labor inflows; pension reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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