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Monetary Channels in Brazil through the Lens of a Semi-Structural Model

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  • André Minella
  • Nelson F. Souza-Sobrinho

Abstract

We develop and estimate a medium-size, semi-structural model for Brazil's economy during the inflation targeting period. The model captures key features of the economy, and allows us to investigate the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy. We decompose the monetary channels into household interest rate, firm interest rate, and exchange rate channels. We find that the household interest rate channel plays the most important role in explaining output dynamics after a monetary policy shock. In the case of inflation, however, both the household interest rate and the exchange rate channels are the main transmission mechanisms. Furthermore, using a proxy for an expectation channel, we also find that this channel is key in the transmission of monetary policy to inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • André Minella & Nelson F. Souza-Sobrinho, 2009. "Monetary Channels in Brazil through the Lens of a Semi-Structural Model," Working Papers Series 181, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:181
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nelson Souza-Sobrinho, 2010. "Macroeconomics of bank interest spreads: evidence from Brazil," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-32, January.
    2. Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson, 2003. "Uma Avaliação do Canal de Crédito no Brasil [An Assessment of the Credit Channel in Brazil]," MPRA Paper 5160, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 35, October –.
    4. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2007. "Is the Investment-Uncertainty Link Really Elusive? The Harmful Effects of Inflation Uncertainty in Brazil," Working Papers Series 157, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Alessandro Rebucci, 2004. "Retail Bank Interest Rate Pass-through: Is Chile Atypical?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Antonio Ahumada & J. Rodrigo Fuentes & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking Market Structure and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 5, pages 147-182, Central Bank of Chile.
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    1. Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions for emerging market economies: The case of Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1730-1738, July.
    2. Castro, Marcos R. de & Gouvea, Solange N. & Minella, Andre & Santos, Rafael & Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F., 2015. "SAMBA: Stochastic Analytical Model with a Bayesian Approach," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 35(2), March.
    3. Francisco J. S. Rocha & Marcos R. V. Magalhaes & Ã tila Amaral Brilhante, 2022. "A BVAR Analysis on Channels of Monetary Policy Transmission in Brazil," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(3), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Garber, Gabriel & Haddad, Eduardo, 2012. "Target Fitting and Robustness Analysis in CGE Models," TD NEREUS 4-2012, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    5. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Gabriel Gonçalves do Vale Monteiro, 2014. "Monetary policy, prudential regulation and investment," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(6), pages 881-906, November.
    6. Fabia A. de Carvalho & Marcos Valli, 2011. "Fiscal Policy in Brazil through the Lens of an Estimated DSGE Model," Working Papers Series 240, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Luiz Fernando de Paula & André de Melo Modenesi & Manoel Carlos C. Pires, 2015. "The tale of the contagion of two crises and policy responses in Brazil: a case of (Keynesian) policy coordination?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 408-435, July.
    9. Carvalho, Fabia A. & Minella, André, 2012. "Survey forecasts in Brazil: A prismatic assessment of epidemiology, performance, and determinants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1371-1391.
    10. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Caroline Cabral Machado, 2013. "Credibility and the credit channel transmission of monetary policy theoretical model and econometric analysis for Brazil," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(4), pages 469-492, August.
    11. Muhammad Naveed Tahir, 2012. "Relative Importance of Monetary Transmission Channels in Inflation Targeting Emerging Economies," EcoMod2012 4092, EcoMod.
    12. Igor Ézio Maciel Silva & Nelson Leitão Paes & Jocildo Fernandes Bezerra, 2016. "Evidences Of Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-Through, Directed Credit And Cost Channel Of Monetary Policy In Brazil," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 036, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    13. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Júlio Cesar Albuquerque Bastos, 2013. "Economic policies, macroeconomic environment and entrepreneurs' expectations," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(3), pages 334-354, July.
    14. Montes, Gabriel Caldas, 2013. "Credibility and monetary transmission channels under inflation targeting: An econometric analysis from a developing country," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 670-684.
    15. Silvio Michael de Azevedo Costa, 2016. "Structural Trends and Cycles in a DSGE Model for Brazil," Working Papers Series 434, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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