IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bcb/wpaper/240.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Policy in Brazil through the Lens of an Estimated DSGE Model

Author

Listed:
  • Fabia A. de Carvalho
  • Marcos Valli

Abstract

This paper takes Brazilian data to an open economy DSGE model that features realistic aspects of fiscal policy in Brazil. The model incorporates primary surplus targets, cyclical expenditures and social programs in the form of public transfers, public investment and distortive taxation. We test for two competing specifications of the role of public capital in the real economy. Bayesian model comparison favors the infrastructure approach to public capital. The presence of non-Ricardian households allows fiscal policy shocks to affect real economy aggregates and distribution. The model is used to address questions regarding the effect of shocks to different fiscal policy instruments upon the business cycle. We also investigate whether recent fiscal policy in Brazil has exerted significant inflationary pressures.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabia A. de Carvalho & Marcos Valli, 2011. "Fiscal Policy in Brazil through the Lens of an Estimated DSGE Model," Working Papers Series 240, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:240
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/wps240.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcos Valli & Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2010. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction: a Simulation Based Analysis of a Two-country New Keynesian DSGE Model with Heterogeneous Households," Working Papers Series 204, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Solange Gouvea, 2007. "Price Rigidity in Brazil: Evidence from CPI Micro Data," Working Papers Series 143, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    4. Minella, André, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Inflation in Brazil (1975-2000): A VAR Estimation," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 57(3), July.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2011. "Introducing financial frictions and unemployment into a small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 1999-2041.
    6. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    7. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    8. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2007. "Copper Price, Fiscal Policu and Business Cycle in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 458, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. André Minella & Nelson F. Souza-Sobrinho, 2009. "Monetary Channels in Brazil through the Lens of a Semi-Structural Model," Working Papers Series 181, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2543-2583, August.
    11. Nogueira, José Ricardo & Siqueira, Rozane Bezerra de & de Souza, Evaldo Santana, 2001. "A Incidência Final dos Impostos Indiretos no Brasil: Efeitos da Tributação de Insumos," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 55(4), October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Takami, Marcelo & Rocha, Jadson M.C. & Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Souza, Sergio R.S., 2014. "Directed clustering coefficient as a measure of systemic risk in complex banking networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 211-216.
    2. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Cyntia Freitas Azevedo & Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2015. "Effective Tax Rates on Consumption and Factor Incomes: a quarterly frequency estimation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 398, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Pablo N. D’Erasmo, 2016. "Access to Credit and the Size of the Formal Sector," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 143-199, April.
    5. Pablo D`Erasmo, 2013. "Access to Credit and the Size of the Formal Sector in Brazil," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-404, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    6. Ornelas, José Renato Haas & Barbachan, José Santiago Fajardo & Farias, Aquiles Rocha de, 2012. "Estimating relative risk aversion, risk-neutral and real-world densities using brazilian real currency options," EBAPE Working Papers 1, FGV EBAPE - Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas (Brazil).
    7. Igor Ézio Maciel Silva & Nelson Leitão Paes & Jocildo Fernandes Bezerra, 2016. "Evidences Of Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-Through, Directed Credit And Cost Channel Of Monetary Policy In Brazil," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 036, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    8. Cavalcanti, Marco A.F.H. & Vereda, Luciano & Doctors, Rebeca de B. & Lima, Felipe C. & Maynard, Lucas, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks under fiscal rules constrained by public debt sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 184-201.
    9. Johannes Hermanus Kemp & Hylton Hollander, 2020. "A medium-sized, open-economy, fiscal DSGE model of South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-92, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Cavalcanti, Marco A. F. H. & Vereda, Luciano, 2015. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers in a DSGE Model for Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 35(2), March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Coenen, Günter & Straub, Roland & Trabandt, Mathias, 2013. "Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 367-386.
    2. Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2012. "FiMod — A DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 239-261.
    3. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    4. Thomas Brand, 2017. "Vitesse et composition des ajustements budgétaires en équilibre général : une analyse appliquée à la zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 68(HS1), pages 159-182.
    5. Enders Almira & Groll Dominik & Stähler Nikolai, 2020. "Parity funding of health care contributions in Germany: A DSGE perspective," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 217-233, June.
    6. Castro, Marcos R. de & Gouvea, Solange N. & Minella, Andre & Santos, Rafael & Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F., 2015. "SAMBA: Stochastic Analytical Model with a Bayesian Approach," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 35(2), March.
    7. Gadatsch, Niklas & Hauzenberger, Klemens & Stähler, Nikolai, 2016. "Fiscal policy during the crisis: A look on Germany and the Euro area with GEAR," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 997-1016.
    8. Gadatsch, Niklas & Hauzenberger, Klemens & Stähler, Nikolai, 2015. "German and the rest of euro area fiscal policy during the crisis," Discussion Papers 05/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Niklas Gadatsch & Josef Hollmayr & Nikolai Stähler, 2019. "Thoughts on a Fiscal Union in EMU," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 360-384, November.
    10. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Jacquinot, Pascal & Papadopoulou, Niki, 2016. "Parsing financial fragmentation in the euro area: a multi-country DSGE perspective," Working Paper Series 1891, European Central Bank.
    11. Bokan, N. & Gerali, A. & Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2018. "EAGLE-FLI: A macroeconomic model of banking and financial interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 249-280.
    12. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jorge A. Fornero & Jordi Galí, 2013. "Non-Ricardian Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 8, pages 283-322, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Walpurga Köhler-Töglhofer & Lukas Reiss, 2009. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus Packages in Times of Crisis," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/09, pages 78-99.
    14. Ansgar Rannenberg & Christian Schoder & Jan Strásky, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of the Euro Area?s fiscal consolidation 2011-2013," IMK Working Paper 156-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Hoffmann, Mathias & Kliem, Martin & Krause, Michael & Moyen, Stéphane & Šauer, Radek, 2021. "Rebalancing the euro area: Is wage adjustment in Germany the answer?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    16. Tobias Cwik & Volker Wieland, 2011. "Keynesian government spending multipliers and spillovers in the euro area [Fiscal policy and growth: do financial crises make a difference?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(67), pages 493-549.
    17. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Francesco Nucci, 2014. "Assessing Policy Reforms for Italy Using ITEM and QUEST III," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 3, pages 211-244, July-Sept.
    18. Matthieu Darracq Paries & Pascal Jacquinot & Niki Papadopoulou, 2016. "Synopsis of the Euro Area Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2016-08, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    19. Matthieu Darracq Paries & Pascal Jacquinot & Niki Papadopoulou, 2016. "Parsing Financial Frictions Underlying Bank Lending Fragmentation during the Euro Area Crisis," Working Papers 2016-7, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    20. Stähler, Nikolai, 2019. "Who benefits from using property taxes to finance a labor tax wedge reduction?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:240. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.