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Debt and growth: Decomposing the cause and effect relationship

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  • Vighneswara Swamy

Abstract

This study provides a data‐rich analysis of the dynamics of government debt and economic growth for a longer period (1960–2009). It spans across different debt regimes and involves a worldwide sample of countries that is more representative than that of studies confined to advanced countries. This study observes a negative relationship between government debt and growth. The point estimates of the range of econometric specifications suggest that a 10‐percentage point increase in the debt‐to‐gross domestic product ratio is associated with 23 basis point reduction in average growth. The results establish the nonlinear relationship between debt and growth. Further, by employing panel vector autoregressions approach, this study decomposes the cause and effect relationship between debt and growth and offers an answer to the question—Does high debt lead to low growth or low growth leads to high debt? The results derived from the impulse–response functions and variance decomposition show the evidence of the long‐term effect of debt on economic growth. The results indicate that the effect is not uniform for all countries but depends mostly on the debt regimes and other important macroeconomic variables like inflation, trade openness, general government final consumption expenditure, and foreign direct investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Vighneswara Swamy, 2020. "Debt and growth: Decomposing the cause and effect relationship," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 141-156, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:25:y:2020:i:2:p:141-156
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.1729
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    Cited by:

    1. Hodabalo Bataka, 2023. "Economic globalization and public debt in Sub‐Saharan Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1756-1771, April.
    2. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Munkhbayar Baatarkhuu, 2024. "Public debt and growth in Asian developing economies: evidence of non-linearity and geographical heterogeneity," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(2), pages 421-452, June.
    3. Panagiotis Pegkas & Christos Staikouras & Constantinos Tsamadias, 2020. "On the determinants of economic growth: Empirical evidence from the Eurozone countries," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 210-229, June.
    4. Yixuan Duan & Min Guo & Yixuan Huang, 2022. "Leverage of Local State-Owned Enterprises, Implicit Contingent Liabilities of Government and Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-23, March.
    5. Chen Kong San & Lee Chin, 2023. "Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth: A Quantile Regression Approach," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 12(2), pages 250-278, December.
    6. Karfakis, Ioannis, 2021. "The predictive content of public debt for real output expansions and contractions over three centuries: A Markov switching analysis for the UK," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    7. Dany Brouillette & Julien Champagne & Julien McDonald-Guimond, 2020. "Production potentielle au Canada : réévaluation de 2020," Staff Analytical Notes 2020-25fr, Bank of Canada.
    8. Juanfeng Zhang & Lele Li & Danxia Zhang & Jie Gu, 2021. "Seven super urban agglomerations, governments’ debt risk, and land leasing, China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 2662-2679, December.
    9. Yu Hsing, 2020. "Does the Reinhart-Rogoff Hypothesis Apply to China?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 2663-2668.
    10. Dany Brouillette & Julien Champagne & Julien McDonald-Guimond, 2020. "Potential output in Canada: 2020 reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2020-25, Bank of Canada.
    11. Nikolaos Filippakis & Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos, 2021. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: A Review of Contemporary Literature," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 19(1), pages 33-50.
    12. Bulus Gokay Canberk, 2020. "Growth-maximizing public debt in Turkey: An empirical investigation," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(3), pages 68-87, August.

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