IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pubeco/v234y2024ics0047272724000392.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Retirement puzzles: New evidence from personal finances

Author

Listed:
  • Olafsson, Arna
  • Pagel, Michaela

Abstract

Using comprehensive transaction-level panel data, we document that individuals repay their consumer debt and save more after they retire. These findings are puzzling because, in principle, people should save more before, rather than after, the expected decrease in income upon retirement. We discuss several potential explanations for our findings, including reductions in work-related expenses and increases in medical health risks around retirement, which are the leading explanations of the so-called retirement-consumption and retirement-savings puzzles. We thereby inform the larger question of whether individuals save enough for retirement.

Suggested Citation

  • Olafsson, Arna & Pagel, Michaela, 2024. "Retirement puzzles: New evidence from personal finances," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:234:y:2024:i:c:s0047272724000392
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272724000392
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105103?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Poterba & Steven Venti & David Wise, 2011. "The Composition and Drawdown of Wealth in Retirement," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 95-118, Fall.
    2. Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "Inattentive consumers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1761-1800, November.
    3. Bing Han & David Hirshleifer & Johan Walden, 2023. "Visibility Bias in the Transmission of Consumption Beliefs and Undersaving," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1647-1704, June.
    4. Eric French, 2005. "The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labour Supply and Retirement Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(2), pages 395-427.
    5. Erich Battistin & Agar Brugiavini & Enrico Rettore & Guglielmo Weber, 2009. "The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2209-2226, December.
    6. Botond Kőszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2006. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(4), pages 1133-1165.
    7. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2013. "Salience and Consumer Choice," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(5), pages 803-843.
    8. Love, David A. & Palumbo, Michael G. & Smith, Paul A., 2009. "The trajectory of wealth in retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 191-208, February.
    9. Rawley Z. Heimer & Kristian Ove R. Myrseth & Raphael S. Schoenle, 2019. "YOLO: Mortality Beliefs and Household Finance Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(6), pages 2957-2996, December.
    10. Ulrike Malmendier & Leslie Sheng Shen, 2024. "Scarred Consumption," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 322-355, January.
    11. Kieren, Pascal & Weber, Martin, 2019. "When saving is not enough: The wealth decumulation decision in retirement," CFS Working Paper Series 634, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    12. Banks, James & Blundell, Richard & Tanner, Sarah, 1998. "Is There a Retirement-Savings Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 769-788, September.
    13. Amy Finkelstein & Erzo F. P. Luttmer & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2013. "What Good Is Wealth Without Health? The Effect Of Health On The Marginal Utility Of Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 221-258, January.
    14. John Laitner & Dan Silverman, 2005. "Estimating Life-Cycle Parameters from Consumption Behavior at Retirement," NBER Working Papers 11163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John B. Jones, 2010. "Why Do the Elderly Save? The Role of Medical Expenses," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(1), pages 39-75, February.
    16. Bound, John & Stinebrickner, Todd & Waidmann, Timothy, 2010. "Health, economic resources and the work decisions of older men," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 106-129, May.
    17. Kevin Huang & Frank Caliendo, 2011. "Rationalizing multiple consumption-saving puzzles in a unified framework," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 6(3), pages 359-388, September.
    18. Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel, 2019. "Consumer Spending during Unemployment: Positive and Normative Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(7), pages 2383-2424, July.
    19. John Laitner & Dan Silverman & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2018. "The Role of Annuitized Wealth in Post-retirement Behavior," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 71-117, July.
    20. James M. Poterba & Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 2011. "Family Status Transitions, Latent Health, and the Post-Retirement Evolution of Assets," NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in the Economics of Aging, pages 23-69, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Annamarie Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2005. "Financial Literacy and Planning: Implications for Retirement Wellbeing," Working Papers wp108, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    22. David I. Laibson & Andrea Repetto & Jeremy Tobacman, 1998. "Self-Control and Saving for Retirement," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 91-196.
    23. B. Douglas Bernheim & Jonathan Skinner & Steven Weinberg, 2001. "What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Wealth among U.S. Households?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 832-857, September.
    24. Scott L. Fulford & Scott Schuh, 2017. "Credit card utilization and consumption over the life cycle and business cycle," Working Papers 17-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    25. John Bailey Jones & Aaron Steelman, 2019. "Lifetime Medical Spending of Retirees," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue May.
    26. David M. Blau, 2008. "Retirement and Consumption in a Life Cycle Model," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 35-71.
    27. Bruce Carlin & Arna Olafsson & Michaela Pagel, 2017. "FinTech Adoption Across Generations: Financial Fitness in the Information Age," NBER Working Papers 23798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Rui Guo & Wei Sun & Jianqiu Wang & Gang Xiao, 2020. "Why do retired workers claim their social security benefits so early? A potential explanation based on the cumulative prospect theory," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 490-505, January.
    29. Matthew Shapiro & Joseph Briggs & Chris Tonetti & Andrew Caplin & John Ameriks, 2016. "Late-in-Life Risks and the Under-Insurance Puzzle," 2016 Meeting Papers 241, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    30. Steven J. Haider & Melvin Stephens, 2007. "Is There a Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 247-264, May.
    31. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst, 2013. "Deconstructing Life Cycle Expenditure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(3), pages 437-492.
    32. Leandro S. Carvalho & Stephan Meier & Stephanie W. Wang, 2016. "Poverty and Economic Decision-Making: Evidence from Changes in Financial Resources at Payday," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(2), pages 260-284, February.
    33. Arna Olafsson & Michaela Pagel, 2018. "The Liquid Hand-to-Mouth: Evidence from Personal Finance Management Software," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(11), pages 4398-4446.
    34. Davies, James B, 1981. "Uncertain Lifetime, Consumption, and Dissaving in Retirement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(3), pages 561-577, June.
    35. Botond Koszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2007. "Reference-Dependent Risk Attitudes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1047-1073, September.
    36. David Laibson & Andrea Repetto & Jeremy Tobacman, 2005. "Estimating Discount Functions with Consumption Choices over the Lifecycle," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000643, UCLA Department of Economics.
    37. Caliendo, Frank & Aadland, David, 2007. "Short-term planning and the life-cycle consumption puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1392-1415, April.
    38. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2020. "Memory, Attention, and Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(3), pages 1399-1442.
    39. James M. Poterba & Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 2011. "Were They Prepared for Retirement? Financial Status at Advanced Ages in the HRS and AHEAD Cohorts," NBER Chapters, in: Investigations in the Economics of Aging, pages 21-69, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Laibson, David I. & Agarwal, Sumit & Driscoll, John C. & Gabaix, Xavier, 2009. "The Age of Reason: Financial Decisions over the Life-Cycle with Implications for Regulation," Scholarly Articles 4554335, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    41. Schwerdt, Guido, 2005. "Why does consumption fall at retirement? Evidence from Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 300-305, December.
    42. Lundberg, Shelly & Startza, Richard & Stillman, Steven, 2003. "The retirement-consumption puzzle: a marital bargaining approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(5-6), pages 1199-1218, May.
    43. Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1984. "Life-Cycle Effects on Consumption and Retirement," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(3), pages 353-370, July.
    44. Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2003. "The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle Anticipated and Actual Declines in Spending at Retirement," Working Papers DRU-3009, RAND Corporation.
    45. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2009. "The Age of Reason: Financial Decisions over the Life Cycle and Implications for Regulation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 51-117.
    46. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Bruce Carlin & Arna Olafsson & Michaela Pagel, 2019. "Generational Differences in Managing Personal Finances," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 54-59, May.
    48. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    49. Sumit Agarwal & Jessica Pan & Wenlan Qian, 2015. "The Composition Effect of Consumption around Retirement: Evidence from Singapore," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 426-431, May.
    50. Michaela Pagel, 2017. "Expectations-Based Reference-Dependent Life-Cycle Consumption," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(2), pages 885-934.
    51. Gabaix, Xavier, 2015. "Behavioral Macroeconomics Via Sparse Dynamic Programming," CEPR Discussion Papers 11026, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    52. Leandro Carvalho & Arna Olafsson & Dan Silverman, 2019. "Misfortune and Mistake: The Financial Conditions and Decision-making Ability of High-cost Loan Borrowers," NBER Working Papers 26328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    53. Botond Koszegi & Adam Szeidl, 2013. "A Model of Focusing in Economic Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(1), pages 53-104.
    54. Jeffrey R. Brown & Gopi Shah Goda & Kathleen McGarry, 2016. "Heterogeneity In State-Dependent Utility: Evidence From Strategic Surveys," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(2), pages 847-861, April.
    55. John Ameriks & Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2007. "Retirement Consumption: Insights from a Survey," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 265-274, May.
    56. Melvin Stephens Jr. & Desmond Toohey, 2018. "Changes in Nutrient Intake at Retirement," NBER Working Papers 24621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Botond Koszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2009. "Reference-Dependent Consumption Plans," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 909-936, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arna Olafsson & Michaela Pagel, 2018. "The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: New Evidence from Personal Finances," NBER Working Papers 24405, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Choi, Kyoung Jin & Jeon, Junkee & Koo, Hyeng Keun, 2022. "Intertemporal preference with loss aversion: Consumption and risk-attitude," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    3. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    4. Ioannis Laliotis & Mujaheed Shaikh & Charitini Stavropoulou & Dimitrios Kourouklis, 2023. "Retirement and Household Expenditure in Turbulent Times," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 968-989, December.
    5. Erik Hurst, 2008. "The Retirement of a Consumption Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 13789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Li, Hongbin & Shi, Xinzheng & Wu, Binzhen, 2016. "The retirement consumption puzzle revisited: Evidence from the mandatory retirement policy in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 623-637.
    7. Pagel, Michaela, 2013. "Expectations-Based Reference-Dependent Life-Cycle Consumption," MPRA Paper 47138, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Miriam Beblo & Sven Schreiber, 2022. "Leisure and housing consumption after retirement: new evidence on the life-cycle hypothesis," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 305-330, March.
    9. Margherita Borella & Flavia Coda Moscarola & Mariacristina Rossi, 2014. "(Un)expected retirement and the consumption puzzle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 733-751, September.
    10. Velarde, Melanie & Herrmann, Roland, 2014. "How retirement changes consumption and household production of food: Lessons from German time-use data," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 1-10.
    11. David M. Blau, 2008. "Retirement and Consumption in a Life Cycle Model," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 35-71.
    12. Jonathan Fisher & Joseph Marchand, 2014. "Does the retirement consumption puzzle differ across the distribution?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 12(2), pages 279-296, June.
    13. Hurd, Michael D. & Rohwedder, Susann, 2013. "Heterogeneity in spending change at retirement," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 1, pages 60-71.
    14. Kevin Huang & Frank Caliendo, 2011. "Rationalizing multiple consumption-saving puzzles in a unified framework," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 6(3), pages 359-388, September.
    15. Melvin Stephens Jr. & Desmond Toohey, 2018. "Changes in Nutrient Intake at Retirement," NBER Working Papers 24621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Bonsang, Eric & Klein, Tobias J., 2012. "Retirement and subjective well-being," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 311-329.
    17. Kevin X.D. Huang & Frank Caliendo, 2007. "Rationalizing Seven Consumption-Saving Puzzles in a Unified Framework," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0716, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    18. Zhu, Penghu & Lin, Boqiang, 2022. "Do the elderly consume more energy? Evidence from the retirement policy in urban China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    19. Stephens, Melvin & Unayama, Takashi, 2012. "The impact of retirement on household consumption in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 62-83.
    20. Amitabh Chandra & Courtney Coile & Corina Mommaerts, 2023. "What Can Economics Say about Alzheimer's Disease?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 428-470, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Retirement; Savings; Consumer debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:234:y:2024:i:c:s0047272724000392. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.