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A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics

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  • Robert Amano
  • Thomas J. Carter
  • Rhys R. Mendes

Abstract

Conventional models imply that central banks aiming to raise inflation should lower nominal rates and thus stimulate aggregate demand. However, several economists have recently challenged this conventional wisdom in favour of an alternative “neo-Fisherian’’ view under which higher nominal rates might in fact lead to higher inflation. In this note, we show that a simple New Keynesian model can indeed deliver a neo-Fisherian link from higher nominal rates to higher inflation. However, the conditions under which this link emerges include a configuration of fiscal and monetary policy, which departs substantially from the configuration normally assumed in the New Keynesian literature. In particular, this configuration involves a commitment that the central bank will not respond too aggressively if inflation is off target, in the sense that policy will be set in a manner inconsistent with the Taylor principle. Active use of inflation to manage real government debt would also be needed. We identify significant challenges associated with both these conditions and argue that they militate against policies that aim to exploit the neo-Fisherian mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Amano & Thomas J. Carter & Rhys R. Mendes, 2016. "A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics," Staff Analytical Notes 16-14, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:16-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Mariana García-Schmidt & Michael Woodford, 2019. "Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(1), pages 86-120, January.
    3. Campbell Leith & Eric Leeper, 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon," Working Papers 2016_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    5. Campbell Leith & Eric Leeper, 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon," Working Papers 2016_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Phiri, 2023. "Fisher’s hypothesis in time–frequency space: a premier using South Africa as a case study," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 4255-4284, October.
    2. Hafedh Bouakez & Takashi Kano, 2024. "Deciphering the Neo-Fisherian Effect," CAMA Working Papers 2024-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, revised Dec 2024.
    3. Andrew Phiri, 2021. "Is Neo-Fisherism ‘alive’ in South Africa? A frequency domain causality approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 142-156, May.
    4. Lutho Mbekeni & Andrew Phiri, 2019. "Can the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) protect the purchasing power of citizens? A new look at Fisher’s hypothesis," Working Papers 1906, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Sep 2019.
    5. Sevda Yapraklı, 2022. "The Validity of The Neo-Fisher Effect in The Period of Explicit Inflation Targeting: An Econometric Analysis on Turkey," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 85-105, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank research; Economic models; Inflation and prices; Interest rates; Monetary policy framework; Transmission of monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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