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Public spending at the effective lower bound: how significant are the sustainability risks?

Author

Listed:
  • Battistini, Niccolò
  • Callegari, Giovanni

Abstract

With monetary policy constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB), the debt sustainability implications of a fiscal expansion are a pressing concern. In a general equilibrium model of fiscal limits, we find that the adverse impact of a fiscal expansion on sustainability is muted at the ELB compared with normal times. Getting the timing of public spending increases right, however, is essential for containing sustainability risks. JEL Classification: E52, E61, E63

Suggested Citation

  • Battistini, Niccolò & Callegari, Giovanni, 2020. "Public spending at the effective lower bound: how significant are the sustainability risks?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 67.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2020:0067:
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    2. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
    3. Battistini, Niccolò & Callegari, Giovanni & Zavalloni, Luca, 2019. "Dynamic fiscal limits and monetary-fiscal policy interactions," Working Paper Series 2268, European Central Bank.
    4. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    5. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates," Policy Briefs PB19-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Bi, Huixin, 2012. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
    7. Campbell Leith & Eric Leeper, 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon," Working Papers 2016_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ELB; Fiscal sustainability; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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