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Uncertainty and Multiple Paradigms of the Transmission Mechanism

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  • Walter Engert
  • Jack Selody

Abstract

An important challenge facing central banks is making decisions under uncertainty about the dynamic effects of monetary policy actions. The authors stress the importance of explicitly recognizing uncertainty about the transmission mechanism when formulating policy advice. They argue that one way to manage monetary policy under uncertainty is to draw on both an output-gap paradigm and a money paradigm of the transmission mechanism to inform decision-making. Taking an eclectic, diversified approach to guide policy judgements could improve the policy outcome.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Engert & Jack Selody, 1998. "Uncertainty and Multiple Paradigms of the Transmission Mechanism," Staff Working Papers 98-7, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:98-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bennett T. McCallum, 1997. "Inflation Targeting in Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and in General," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Iwao Kuroda (ed.), Towards More Effective Monetary Policy, chapter 8, pages 211-252, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    4. Manfred J. M. Neumann, 1997. "Monetary Targeting in Germany," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Iwao Kuroda (ed.), Towards More Effective Monetary Policy, chapter 7, pages 176-210, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Duguay, Pierre, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the strength of the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada: An aggregate approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 39-61, February.
    6. Issing, Otmar, 1997. "Monetary targeting in Germany: The stability of monetary policy and of the monetary system," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 67-79, June.
    7. Jamie Armour & Walter Engert & Ben Fung, 1996. "Overnight Rate Innovations as a measure of monetary Policy Shocks in Vector Autoregressions," Staff Working Papers 96-4, Bank of Canada.
    8. Charles Freedman, 1995. "The role of monetary conditions and the monetary conditions index in the conduct of policy [speech]," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1995(Autumn), pages 53-59.
    9. Walter Engert & Scott Hendry, 1998. "Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two," Staff Working Papers 98-6, Bank of Canada.
    10. Gordon Thiessen, 1995. "Uncertainty and the transmission of monetary policy in Canada (HERMES-Glendon Lecture) [speech]," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1995(Summer), pages 41-58.
    11. Scott Hendry, 1995. "Long-Run Demand for M1," Macroeconomics 9511001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. David E. Laidler, 1988. "Taking Money Seriously," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 687-713, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Ragan, 2005. "The Exchange Rate and Canadian Inflation Targeting," Staff Working Papers 05-34, Bank of Canada.
    2. Takeshi Kimura & Hiroshi Kobayashi & Jun Muranaga & Hiroshi Ugai, 2003. "The effect of the increase in the monetary base of Japan's economy at zero interest rates: an empirical analysis," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 276-312, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0063, European Central Bank.
    4. Jens R. Clausen & Juergen B. Donges, 2001. "European Monetary Policy: The Ongoing Debate on Conceptual Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(10), pages 1309-1326, November.
    5. David Laidler, 1999. "The Quantity of Money and Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 99-5, Bank of Canada.
    6. Nicoletti Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 63, European Central Bank.
    7. Barbara Roffia & Andrea Zaghini, 2007. "Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 241-280, December.
    8. Eugenio Domingo Solans, 2000. "How should monetary policymakers respond to the new challenges of global economic integration? : commentary," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-287.
    9. Rodríguez Arnulfo & Rodríguez Pedro N., 2007. "Recursive Thick Modeling and the Choice of Monetary Policy in Mexico," Working Papers 2007-04, Banco de México.
    10. Gino Cateau, 2006. "Guarding Against Large Policy Errors under Model Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 06-13, Bank of Canada.
    11. Arnulfo Rodriguez & Pedro N. Rodriguez, 2006. "Recursive Thick Modeling and the Choice of Monetary Policy in Mexico," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 30, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Jeannine Bailliu & Daniel Garcés & Mark Kruger & Miguel Messmacher, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico," Staff Working Papers 03-17, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy framework; Uncertainty and monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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