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Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy

Author

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  • Gabriel Bruneau
  • Ian Christensen
  • Césaire Meh

Abstract

We perform an analysis to determine how well the introduction of a countercyclical loanto- value (LTV) ratio can reduce household indebtedness and housing price fluctuations compared with a monetary policy rule augmented with house price inflation. To this end, we construct a New Keynesian model in which a fraction of households borrow against the value of their houses and we introduce news shocks on housing demand. We estimate the model with Canadian data using Bayesian methods. We find that the introduction of news shocks can generate a housing market boom-bust cycle, the bust following unrealized expectations on housing demand. Our study also suggests that a countercyclical LTV ratio is a useful policy to reduce the spillover from the housing market to consumption, and to lean against news-driven boom-bust cycles in housing price and credit generated by expectations of future macroeconomic developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Bruneau & Ian Christensen & Césaire Meh, 2016. "Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy," Staff Working Papers 16-31, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-31
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    Cited by:

    1. Sami Alpanda & Gino Cateau & Césaire Meh, 2018. "A policy model to analyze macroprudential regulations and monetary policy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 828-863, August.
    2. Fennee Chong & Venus Khim-Shen Liew, 2020. "New Zealand's Residential Price Dynamics: Do capability to consume and government policies matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2262-2274.
    3. Turdaliev, Nurlan & Zhang, Yahong, 2019. "Household debt, macroprudential rules, and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 234-252.
    4. Bluwstein, Kristina, 2017. "Asymmetric Macro-Financial Spillovers," Working Paper Series 337, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    5. Forster, Robert & Sun, Xiaojin, 2022. "Taming the housing crisis: An LTV macroprudential policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Kiana Basiri & Babak Mahmoudi & Chenggang Zhou, 2023. "Who benefits the most? Risk pooling in mortgage loan insurance: Evidence from the Canadian mortgage market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 311-337, March.
    7. Maria Chiara Cavalleri & Boris Cournède & Volker Ziemann, 2019. "Housing markets and macroeconomic risks," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1555, OECD Publishing.
    8. William Gatt, 2018. "Housing boom-bust cycles and asymmetric macroprudential policy," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    9. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Miguel Molico & Ben Tomlin, 2015. "On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Recent Developments and Research," Discussion Papers 15-7, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Financial stability; Housing; Monetary policy framework; Transmission of monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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