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The Effect of the Federal Reserve’s Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets

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  • Vikram Rai
  • Lena Suchanek

Abstract

The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) program has been accompanied by a flow of funds into emerging-market economies (EMEs) in search of higher returns. When Federal Reserve officials first mentioned an eventual slowdown and end of purchases under the central bank’s QE program in May and June 2013, foreign investors started to withdraw some of these funds, leading to capital outflows, a drop in EME currencies and stock markets, and a rise in bond yields. Using an event-study approach, this paper estimates the impact of “Fed tapering” on EME financial markets and capital flows for 19 EMEs. Results suggest that EMEs with strong fundamentals (e.g., stronger growth and current account position, lower debt, and higher growth in business confidence and productivity), saw more favourable responses to Fed communications on tapering. Capital account openness initially played a role as well, but diminished in importance in subsequent tapering announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Vikram Rai & Lena Suchanek, 2014. "The Effect of the Federal Reserve’s Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets," Staff Working Papers 14-50, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:14-50
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    3. Parantap Basu & Shesadri Banerjee, 2015. "Effect of Quantitative Easing on the Indian Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Perspective," CEMAP Working Papers 2015_03, Durham University Business School.
    4. Özmen, M. Utku & Yılmaz, Erdal, 2017. "Co-movement of exchange rates with interest rate differential, risk premium and FED policy in “fragile economies”," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 173-188.
    5. Anaya, Pablo & Hachula, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2017. "Spillovers of U.S. unconventional monetary policy to emerging markets: The role of capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 275-295.
    6. Kočenda, Evžen & Moravcová, Michala, 2018. "Intraday effect of news on emerging European forex markets: An event study analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 597-615.
    7. Piotr Bartkiewicz, 2021. "The evolution of the Polish government bond market," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(1), pages 149-169.
    8. Lwazi Senzo Ntshangase & Sheunesu Zhou & Irrshad Kaseeram, 2023. "The Spillover Effects of US Unconventional Monetary Policy on Inflation and Non-Inflation Targeting Emerging Markets," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-15, May.
    9. Polat, Onur & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission mechanisms of financial stress into economic activity in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 395-415.
    10. Hwee Kwan Chow & Taojun Xie, 2016. "Are House Prices Driven by Capital Flows? Evidence from Singapore," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, February.
    11. Prachi Mishra & Papa N’Diaye & Lam Nguyen, 2018. "Effects of Fed Announcements on Emerging Markets: What Determines Financial Market Reactions?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 732-762, December.
    12. Moumita Paul & Kalluru Siva Reddy, 2022. "US QE and the Indian Bond Market," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(1), pages 137-157, March.
    13. Mélina London & Maéva Silvestrini, 2023. "US Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: the Trade Credit Channel," Working papers 915, Banque de France.
    14. Choi, Sun-Yong & Phiri, Andrew & Teplova, Tamara & Umar, Zaghum, 2024. "Connectedness between (un)conventional monetary policy and islamic and advanced equity markets: A returns and volatility spillover analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 348-363.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International financial markets; Transmission of monetary policy; International topics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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