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El impacto sobre el gasto de la reforma de las pensiones: una primera estimacion

Author

Listed:
  • Angel De la Fuente
  • Rafael Domenech

Abstract

En este trabajo se presenta una primera estimacion del impacto de la reforma del sistema de pensiones acordada por el Gobierno y los agentes sociales en enero de 2011. Tras actualizar las proyecciones de gasto en pensiones realizadas por de la Fuente y Domenech (2009) para el periodo 2008-60, se analiza el impacto sobre esta variable de la elevacion de la edad de jubilacion hasta los 67 años, la ampliacion del periodo de computo de las pensiones y el aumento en el numero de años de cotizacion necesarios para alcanzar el 100% de la base reguladora. Condicionados a los supuestos realizados sobre la evolucion del empleo, la productividad y la demografia, los resultados sugieren que estas medidas tendran un impacto apreciable sobre el gasto en pensiones, con un ahorro que ascendera a dos puntos de PIB al final del período transitorio en 2027. No obstante, dadas las incertidumbres existentes sobre la evolucion futura de muchas de las variables que afectan a los resultados, seria deseable adelantar la introduccion del llamado factor de sostenibilidad al inicio de la reforma, de forma que exista un mecanismo claro para modular el ritmo y el alcance de las reformas previstas si asi lo exige la situacion financiera del sistema antes del final del periodo transitorio.

Suggested Citation

  • Angel De la Fuente & Rafael Domenech, 2011. "El impacto sobre el gasto de la reforma de las pensiones: una primera estimacion," Working Papers 1109, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1109
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Alonso Meseguer & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, 2007. "Reforma de las pensiones: la experiencia internacional," Working Papers 2007-18, FEDEA.
    2. Javier Alonso & David Tuesta & Jasmina Bjeletic & Carlos Herrera & Soledad Hormazabal & Ivonne Ordonez & Carolina Romero, 2009. "Proyecciones del impacto de los fondos de pensiones en la inversion en infraestructura y el crecimiento en Latinoamerica," Working Papers 0921, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    3. Rafael Domenech & Ángel Melguizo, 2008. "Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty, Communication and Transparency," Working Papers 0803, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Alonso & Rafael Domenech Vilariño & David Tuesta, 2011. "Sistemas Publicos de Pensiones y la crisis fiscal en la zona euro. Ensenanzas para America Latina," Working Papers 1123, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

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