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Metal Intensity in Comparative Historical Perspective: China, North Asia, the United States & the Kuznets Curve

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  • Huw McKay

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the likely future path of China’s metal intensity by referencing the experience of relevant peers through initial engagement with a technology-led strategy and beyond. This question cuts to the very roots of Chinese long run economic strategy and performance. The broad conclusion is that there is no ‘silver bullet’ quantitative model that captures the dynamics of metal intensity through the entirety of the industrialisation process. Even the identification of a robust non-linear long run relationship between steel intensity and income per capita in the United States, styled here as the “metal intensity Kuznets curve”, does not overturn this position. Each national industrialisation process, its entry into the global strategic transition and its relationship to metal intensity, appears to be sui generis and should be dealt with accordingly. China will not continue to follow a metal intensity path similar to Korea’s for more than another decade. After that point, similarities with the Japanese and United States’ experiences will increase, but a distinct Chinese character will develop. The peak in Chinese steel usage per capita should occur within a handful of years from 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Huw McKay, 2008. "Metal Intensity in Comparative Historical Perspective: China, North Asia, the United States & the Kuznets Curve," GDSC Working Papers 006, Institute of Global Dynamic Systems.
    • Handle: RePEc:auu:wpaper:006
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    Cited by:

    1. Brendan Coates & Nghi Luu, 2012. "China's emergence in global commodity markets," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 1, pages 1-30, May.
    2. Huw McKay, 2016. "Discussion of The Key Obstacles to Success in Economic Catching Up by China," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    metal intensity; Asian industrialisation; China; strategic transition; Kuznets curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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