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China'S Real Exchange Rate Puzzle

Author

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  • Rod Tyers
  • Jane Golley
  • Iain Bain

Abstract

International pressure to revalue China’s currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis under which economic growth, stemming from improvements in traded sector productivity, causes non-traded prices to rise. The puzzle is that, while evidence on China’s productivity and prices supports this hypothesis, its real exchange rate has shown no long run tendency to appreciate. Resolution requires extension of the hypothesis to allow for effects on the real exchange rate due to non-traded productivity improvements or, in association with failures of the law of one price for traded goods, labour supply growth and growth-related demand switches due to changes in financial capital flows and trade distortions. The sensitivity of China’s real exchange rate to these determinants is reviewed with the results confirming that financial and capital outflows are dominant depreciating forces in the short run. Along with WTO accession trade reforms, it is shown that the heretofore rising surplus of Chinese domestic saving over its investment has restrained the real exchange rate from appreciating since the late 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Iain Bain, 2007. "China'S Real Exchange Rate Puzzle," CAMA Working Papers 2007-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2007-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dong He & Wenlang Zhang & Gaofeng Han & Tommy Wu, 2014. "Productivity Growth of the Nontradable Sectors in China," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 655-666, November.
    2. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2011. "Appreciating the Renminbi," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 265-297, February.
    3. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    4. Steven Pennings & Rod Tyers, 2008. "Increasing Returns, Financial Capital Mobility and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(s1), pages 141-158, September.
    5. Dosse Toulaboe, 2017. "Real exchange rate misalignment of Asian currencies," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 31(1), pages 39-52, May.
    6. Imai, Hiroyuki, 2018. "China’s rapid growth and real exchange rate appreciation: Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson effect," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 39-52.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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