IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aut/wpaper/201710.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Using Validated Measures of High School Academic Achievement to Predict University Success

Author

Listed:
  • Tim Maloney

    (School of Economics, Auckland University of Technology)

  • Kamakshi Singh

Abstract

Administrative data from a New Zealand university are used to validate the National Certificate of Educational Achievement (NCEA) Rank Score used in university admissions and scholarship decisions. We find no statistical evidence to corroborate the specific weighting scheme used in this index. For example, our regression analysis suggests that too much weight is attached to the lowest category of credits in predicting both successful completion outcomes and letter grades. To show the potential importance of this validated measure of high school achievement, we run several simulations on these first-year student outcomes at this university. We show that the use of an alternative, empirically-validated measure of NCEA results to select students would lead to only slight improvements in course completion rates and letter grades. These higher entry standards would lead to declines in the proportions of Pacifica students, but minimal impacts on the proportion of Māori students enrolled at this university.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Maloney & Kamakshi Singh, 2017. "Using Validated Measures of High School Academic Achievement to Predict University Success," Working Papers 2017-10, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:aut:wpaper:201710
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aut.ac.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/136075/Economics-WP-2017-10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua Angrist & Philip Oreopoulos & Tyler Williams, 2014. "When Opportunity Knocks, Who Answers?: New Evidence on College Achievement Awards," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(3), pages 572-610.
    2. Julian R. Betts & Darlene Morell, 1999. "The Determinants of Undergraduate Grade Point Average: The Relative Importance of Family Background, High School Resources, and Peer Group Effects," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(2), pages 268-293.
    3. Jill Johnes, 1997. "Inter-university variations in undergraduate non-completion rates: A statistical analysis by subject of study," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 343-362.
    4. Liane Moneta-Koehler & Abigail M Brown & Kimberly A Petrie & Brent J Evans & Roger Chalkley, 2017. "The Limitations of the GRE in Predicting Success in Biomedical Graduate School," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, January.
    5. Cohn, Elchanan & Cohn, Sharon & Balch, Donald C. & Bradley, James Jr., 2004. "Determinants of undergraduate GPAs: SAT scores, high-school GPA and high-school rank," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 577-586, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Black, Sandra E. & Lincove, Jane & Cullinane, Jennifer & Veron, Rachel, 2015. "Can you leave high school behind?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 52-63.
    2. Judith M. Delaney & Paul J. Devereux, 2020. "How Gender and Prior Disadvantage Predict Performance in College," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 51(2), pages 189-239.
    3. A. Abigail Payne & Justin Smith, 2020. "Big Fish, Small Pond: The Effect of Rank at Entry on Postsecondary Outcomes," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(4), pages 1475-1509, April.
    4. By Vincenzo Carrieri & Marcello D’Amato & Roberto Zotti, 2015. "On the causal effects of selective admission policies on students’ performances: evidence from a quasi-experiment in a large Italian university," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 1034-1056.
    5. Cyrenne, Philippe & Chan, Alan, 2012. "High school grades and university performance: A case study," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 524-542.
    6. Sandra E. Black & Kalena E. Cortes & Jane Arnold Lincove, 2014. "Efficacy vs. Equity: What Happens When States Tinker with College Admissions in a Race-Blind Era?," NBER Working Papers 20804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Joseph J. Sabia, 2007. "Reading, Writing, And Sex: The Effect Of Losing Virginity On Academic Performance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(4), pages 647-670, October.
    8. CARRIERI, Vincenzo & D'AMATO, Marcello & ZOTTI, Roberto, 2013. "Selective Admission Tests and Students' Performances. Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Large Italian University," CELPE Working Papers 0/00, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.
    9. Pengfei Jia & Tim Maloney, 2014. "Using Predictive Modelling to Identify Students at Risk of Poor University Outcomes," Working Papers 2014-03, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    10. Linda Sealy & Christina Saunders & Jeffrey Blume & Roger Chalkley, 2019. "The GRE over the entire range of scores lacks predictive ability for PhD outcomes in the biomedical sciences," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, March.
    11. Lundborg, Petter, 2006. "Having the wrong friends? Peer effects in adolescent substance use," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 214-233, March.
    12. Natalia Maloshonok & Evgeniy Terentev, 2019. "Towards the New Model of Doctoral Education: The Experience of Enhancing Doctoral Programs in Russian Universities," Voprosy obrazovaniya / Educational Studies Moscow, National Research University Higher School of Economics, issue 3, pages 8-42.
    13. Abdulmumini Baba Alfa & Abdulmumini Baba Alfa & Mohd Zaini Abd Karim, 2016. "Student Enthusiasm as a Key Determinant of their Performance," International Review of Management and Marketing, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 237-245.
    14. Rajeev Darolia & Cory Koedel, 2018. "High Schools And Students' Initial Colleges And Majors," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(4), pages 692-710, October.
    15. Ambika Mathur & Christine S Chow & Andrew L Feig & Heidi Kenaga & Judith A Moldenhauer & Nisansala S Muthunayake & Mathew L Ouellett & Laura E Pence & Victoria Straub, 2018. "Exposure to multiple career pathways by biomedical doctoral students at a public research university," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(6), pages 1-13, June.
    16. Mejia, Daniel & St-Pierre, Marc, 2008. "Unequal opportunities and human capital formation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 395-413, June.
    17. Damgaard, Mette Trier & Nielsen, Helena Skyt, 2018. "Nudging in education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 313-342.
    18. Donald R. Haurin & Stuart S. Rosenthal, 2009. "Language, Agglomeration and Hispanic Homeownership," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 155-183, June.
    19. Scott E. Carrell & Michal Kurlaender, 2023. "My Professor Cares: Experimental Evidence on the Role of Faculty Engagement," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 113-141, November.
    20. repec:zbw:rwidps:0002 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Lisa Barrow & Cecilia Elena Rouse, 2018. "Financial Incentives and Educational Investment: The Impact of Performance-based Scholarships on Student Time Use," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 13(4), pages 419-448, Fall.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Academic at-risk students; Academic performance; Academic success; Economics of education;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aut:wpaper:201710. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gail Pacheco (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fbautnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.