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Price Signals and Bid-Ask Spreads in an Illiquid Market: The Case of Residential Property in Ireland, 2006-2011

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  • Ronan Lyons

Abstract

How legitimate is it to use asking price information in the absence of transactions prices? And how does the gap between the two vary over the market cycle? This paper examines these two issues by comparing two large datasets from Ireland's property market over the volatile period 2001-2012. It finds that the two series are extremely closely correlated, both across space and across time, suggesting that in illiquid markets, or in the absence of transaction price datasets, asking prices offer a very good proxy. Nonetheless, a bid-ask spread exists at any given point in time. By exploiting information on the various stages of a housing transaction, it is possible to estimate the bid-ask spread in the housing market. That spread ranges from +4% at the height of the market in 2007 to -7% in 2010.

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  • Ronan Lyons, 2013. "Price Signals and Bid-Ask Spreads in an Illiquid Market: The Case of Residential Property in Ireland, 2006-2011," ERES eres2013_244, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2013_244
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    1. Chihiro Shimizu & Kiyohiko G Nishimura & Tsutomu Watanabe1, 2012. "House prices from magazines, realtors,and the Land Registry," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 29-38, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Haurin, Donald & McGreal, Stanley & Adair, Alastair & Brown, Louise & Webb, James R., 2013. "List price and sales prices of residential properties during booms and busts," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-10.
    3. Ronan C. Lyons, 2015. "East, west, boom and bust: the spread of house prices and rents in Ireland, 2007-2012," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 77-101, March.
    4. Steven C. Bourassa & Martin Hoesli & Donato Scognamiglio & Philippe Sormani, 2008. "Constant-Quality House Price Indexes for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 144(IV), pages 561-575, December.
    5. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    6. Kennedy, Gerard & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2012. "The Irish Mortgage Market: Stylised Facts, Negative Equity and Arrears," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 85-108, February.
    7. J. R. Knight & Jonathan Dombrow & C. F. Sirmans, 1995. "A Varying Parameters Approach to Constructing House Price Indexes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 187-205, June.
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    1. Ronan C. Lyons, 2015. "East, west, boom and bust: the spread of house prices and rents in Ireland, 2007-2012," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 77-101, March.
    2. Efthymiou, D. & Antoniou, C., 2015. "Investigating the impact of recession on transportation cost capitalization: a spatial analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-9.
    3. Ronan C. Lyons, 2013. "Inside a Bubble and Crash – Evidence from the Valuation of Amenities," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    4. Mense, Andreas & Michelsen, Claus & Cholodilin, Konstantin A., 2017. "Empirics on the causal effects of rent control in Germany," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 24/2017, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    5. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Andreas Mense & Claus Michelsen, 2016. "Market Break or Simply Fake? Empirics on the Causal Effects of Rent Controls in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1584, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Agnew, Kerri & Lyons, Ronan C., 2018. "The impact of employment on housing prices: Detailed evidence from FDI in Ireland," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 174-189.

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    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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