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List price and sales prices of residential properties during booms and busts

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  • Haurin, Donald
  • McGreal, Stanley
  • Adair, Alastair
  • Brown, Louise
  • Webb, James R.

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between the list and sale price of residential properties over the housing cycle. In down or normal markets the list price generally exceeds the sales price; however, when the housing market is strong, homes sell for more than their list price. This observation is not consistent with the assumptions made in the standard model of home sellers’ search behavior. We consider alternative models. In one, sellers set list prices based on their expectations of future changes in sales prices and the arrival rate of buyers; however, demand shocks occur. This model partially explains our data from the Belfast, U.K. housing market, but it fails to predict the list to sales price ratio during a sustained housing boom. We next describe a model where sellers’ endogenously select their search mechanism depending on the strength of the housing market. We find support for the conjecture that sellers switch to an auction-like model during housing booms. There also is evidence that during a downturn in the market, sellers’ list prices are sticky.

Suggested Citation

  • Haurin, Donald & McGreal, Stanley & Adair, Alastair & Brown, Louise & Webb, James R., 2013. "List price and sales prices of residential properties during booms and busts," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:22:y:2013:i:1:p:1-10
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2013.01.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Cardella, Eric & Seiler, Michael J., 2016. "The effect of listing price strategy on real estate negotiations: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 71-90.
    2. Hungria Gunnelin, Rosane, 2020. "Bidding strategies and winner’s curse in auctions of non-distressed residential real estate," Working Paper Series 20/13, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    3. Darren K. Hayunga & R. Kelley Pace, 2017. "List Prices in the US Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 155-184, August.
    4. Stanley McGreal & Paloma Taltavull de La Paz & Valerie Kupke & Peter Rossini & Paul Kershaw, 2016. "Measuring the influence of space and time effects on time on the market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(13), pages 2867-2884, October.
    5. Thanos, Sotirios & Dubé, Jean & Legros, Diègo, 2016. "Putting time into space: the temporal coherence of spatial applications in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-88.
    6. Crocker H. Liu & Adam Nowak & Stuart Rosenthal, 2014. "Bubbles, Post-Crash Dynamics, and the Housing Market," Working Papers 14-18, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    7. Jean Dubé & Diègo Legros & Sotirios Thanos, 2018. "Past price ‘memory’ in the housing market: testing the performance of different spatio-temporal specifications," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 118-138, January.
    8. Pfeifer Norbert & Steurer Miriam, 2022. "Early Real Estate Indicators during the COVID-19 Crisis," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 38(1), pages 319-351, March.
    9. David Koch & Gunther Maier, 2015. "The influence of estate agencies’ location and time on Internet," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 35(2), pages 147-171, October.
    10. Josep Maria Raya Vilchez & Aleksander Kucel, 2023. "How fiscal policy affects housing market dynamics: Evidence from Spain," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 323-347, April.
    11. Hyun, Dongwoo & Milcheva, Stanimira, 2018. "Spatial dependence in apartment transaction prices during boom and bust," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 36-45.
    12. Bich Hong Nguyen Thi & Trong Hoai Nguyen & Thanh Hiep Truong, 2020. "The Role of Listing Price Strategies on the Probability of Selling a House: Evidence from Vietnam," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(2), pages 63-75, June.
    13. Lawrence Kryzanowski & Yanting Wu & Tingyu Zhou, 2023. "Conflicts of interest and agent heterogeneity in buyer brokerage," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(1), pages 130-169, January.
    14. Liu, Crocker H. & Nowak, Adam & Rosenthal, Stuart S., 2016. "Housing price bubbles, new supply, and within-city dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 55-72.
    15. Alla Koblyakova & Larisa Fleishman & Orly Furman, 2022. "Accuracy of Households’ Dwelling Valuations, Housing Demand and Mortgage Decisions: Israeli Case," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 48-74, July.
    16. Pablo Picardo, 2019. "Predicción de precios de vivienda: Aprendizaje estadístico con datos de oferta y transacciones para la ciudad de Montevideo," Documentos de trabajo 2019002, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    17. Kyung Jin Choi & Byungkwon Lim & Jaehwan Park, 2020. "Evaluation of the Reverse Mortgage Option in Korea: A Long Straddle Perspective," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-14, September.
    18. Ronan Lyons, 2013. "Price Signals and Bid-Ask Spreads in an Illiquid Market: The Case of Residential Property in Ireland, 2006-2011," ERES eres2013_244, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    19. Liang, Cong & Hui, Eddie C.M. & Yip, Tsz Leung & Huang, Yaoxuan, 2020. "Private land use for public housing projects: The Influence of a Government Announcement on Housing Markets in Hong Kong," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    20. Paloma Taltavull de La Paz & V. Raul Perez-Sanchez & Raul-Tomas Mora-Garcia & Juan-Carlos Perez-Sanchez, 2019. "Green Premium Evidence from Climatic Areas: A Case in Southern Europe, Alicante (Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-29, January.
    21. Ling Li & Wayne Xinwei Wan, 2024. "The Effect of Expected Losses on the Hong Kong Property Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(4), pages 654-683, May.
    22. Galesi, Alessandro & Mata, Nuria & Rey, David & Schmitz, Sebastian & Schuffels, Johannes, 2020. "Regional Housing Market Conditions in Spain," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    23. Genesove, David & Hansen, James, 2016. "The Role of Auctions and Negotiation in Housing Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 11392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Vandenbergh, Joren, 2024. "Seller and search behavior in the Belgian housing market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    25. Bruce L. Gordon & Daniel T. Winkler, 2017. "The Effect of Listing Price Changes on the Selling Price of Single-Family Residential Homes," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 185-215, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    List price; Sale price; Residential housing; Time on market; Search models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions

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