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Price return auto-correlation and predictability in agent-based models of financial markets

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  • Damien Challet
  • Tobias Galla

Abstract

We demonstrate that minority mechanisms arise in the dynamics of markets because of effects of price impact; accordingly the relative importance of minority and delayed majority mechanisms depends on the frequency of trading. We then use minority games to illustrate that a vanishing price return auto-correlation function does not necessarily imply market efficiency. On the contrary, we stress the difference between correlations measured conditionally and unconditionally on external patterns.

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  • Damien Challet & Tobias Galla, 2004. "Price return auto-correlation and predictability in agent-based models of financial markets," Papers cond-mat/0404264, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2004.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0404264
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    Cited by:

    1. Simone Bianco & Roberto Reno, 2009. "Unexpected volatility and intraday serial correlation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 465-475.
    2. Leonidov, Andrei & Trainin, Vladimir & Zaitsev, Alexander & Zaitsev, Sergey, 2007. "Market mill dependence pattern in the stock market: Modeling of predictability and asymmetry via multi-component conditional distribution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 386(1), pages 240-252.
    3. Witte, Björn-Christopher, 2011. "Removing systematic patterns in returns in a financial market model by artificially intelligent traders," BERG Working Paper Series 82, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    4. Challet, Damien, 2008. "Inter-pattern speculation: Beyond minority, majority and $-games," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 85-100, January.
    5. Simone Bianco & Roberto Ren'o, 2006. "Unexpected volatility and intraday serial correlation," Papers physics/0610023, arXiv.org.

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