IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2406.19402.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling financial volume curves with hierarchical Poisson processes

Author

Listed:
  • Creighton Heaukulani
  • Abhinav Pandey
  • Lancelot F. James

Abstract

Modeling the trading volume curves of financial instruments throughout the day is of key interest in financial trading applications. Predictions of these so-called volume profiles guide trade execution strategies, for example, a common strategy is to trade a desired quantity across many orders in line with the expected volume curve throughout the day so as not to impact the price of the instrument. The volume curves (for each day) are naturally grouped by stock and can be further gathered into higher-level groupings, such as by industry. In order to model such admixtures of volume curves, we introduce a hierarchical Poisson process model for the intensity functions of admixtures of inhomogenous Poisson processes, which represent the trading times of the stock throughout the day. The model is based on the hierarchical Dirichlet process, and an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is derived following the slice sampling framework for Bayesian nonparametric mixture models. We demonstrate the method on datasets of different stocks from the Trade and Quote repository maintained by Wharton Research Data Services, including the most liquid stock on the NASDAQ stock exchange, Apple, demonstrating the scalability of the approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Creighton Heaukulani & Abhinav Pandey & Lancelot F. James, 2024. "Modelling financial volume curves with hierarchical Poisson processes," Papers 2406.19402, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2406.19402
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.19402
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Teh, Yee Whye & Jordan, Michael I. & Beal, Matthew J. & Blei, David M., 2006. "Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1566-1581, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michelle Dietzen & Haoran Zhai & Olivia Lucas & Oriol Pich & Christopher Barrington & Wei-Ting Lu & Sophia Ward & Yanping Guo & Robert E. Hynds & Simone Zaccaria & Charles Swanton & Nicholas McGranaha, 2024. "Replication timing alterations are associated with mutation acquisition during breast and lung cancer evolution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, December.
    2. Redivo, Edoardo & Nguyen, Hien D. & Gupta, Mayetri, 2020. "Bayesian clustering of skewed and multimodal data using geometric skewed normal distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Jin, Xin & Maheu, John M., 2016. "Bayesian semiparametric modeling of realized covariance matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 19-39.
    4. Parvin Ahmadi & Iman Gholampour & Mahmoud Tabandeh, 2018. "Cluster-based sparse topical coding for topic mining and document clustering," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 12(3), pages 537-558, September.
    5. Jeffrey L. Furman & Florenta Teodoridis, 2020. "Automation, Research Technology, and Researchers’ Trajectories: Evidence from Computer Science and Electrical Engineering," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 330-354, March.
    6. Xin Jin & John M. Maheu & Qiao Yang, 2019. "Bayesian parametric and semiparametric factor models for large realized covariance matrices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 641-660, August.
    7. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Anantharama, Nandini & Kallies, Anne, 2021. "Electricity market transitions in Australia: Evidence using model-based clustering," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    8. Shu-Ping Shi & Yong Song, 2012. "Identifying Speculative Bubbles with an Infinite Hidden Markov Model," Working Paper series 26_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    9. Lu Huang & Xiang Chen & Yi Zhang & Changtian Wang & Xiaoli Cao & Jiarun Liu, 2022. "Identification of topic evolution: network analytics with piecewise linear representation and word embedding," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(9), pages 5353-5383, September.
    10. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    11. Jin, Xin & Maheu, John M. & Yang, Qiao, 2022. "Infinite Markov pooling of predictive distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 302-321.
    12. Thomas R. W. Oliver & Lia Chappell & Rashesh Sanghvi & Lauren Deighton & Naser Ansari-Pour & Stefan C. Dentro & Matthew D. Young & Tim H. H. Coorens & Hyunchul Jung & Tim Butler & Matthew D. C. Nevill, 2022. "Clonal diversification and histogenesis of malignant germ cell tumours," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Gustaf Bellstam & Sanjai Bhagat & J. Anthony Cookson, 2021. "A Text-Based Analysis of Corporate Innovation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4004-4031, July.
    14. Michael L. Pennell & David B. Dunson, 2008. "Nonparametric Bayes Testing of Changes in a Response Distribution with an Ordinal Predictor," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-423, June.
    15. Bruno Scarpa & David B. Dunson, 2009. "Bayesian Hierarchical Functional Data Analysis Via Contaminated Informative Priors," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 772-780, September.
    16. Hassan Akell & Farkhondeh-Alsadat Sajadi & Iraj Kazemi, 2023. "Construction of Jointly Distributed Random Samples Drawn from the Beta Two-Parameter Process," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 1-12, September.
    17. Hongxia Yang & Aurelie Lozano, 2015. "Multi-relational learning via hierarchical nonparametric Bayesian collective matrix factorization," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 1133-1147, May.
    18. J. Griffin, 2011. "Bayesian clustering of distributions in stochastic frontier analysis," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 275-283, December.
    19. Bauwens, Luc & Dufays, Arnaud & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2014. "Marginal likelihood for Markov-switching and change-point GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 508-522.
    20. Markus Jochmann, 2015. "Modeling U.S. Inflation Dynamics: A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 537-558, May.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2406.19402. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.