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Tracking the Credibility Revolution across Fields

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  • Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Abstract

This paper updates Currie, Kleven, and Zwiers (2020) by examining the credibility revolution across fields, including finance and macroeconomics, using NBER working papers up to May 2024. While the growth in terms related to identification and research designs have continued, finance and macroeconomics have lagged behind applied micro. Difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity designs have risen since 2002, but the growth in difference-in-difference has been larger, more persistent, and more ubiquitous. In contrast, instrumental variables have stayed flat over this period. Finance and macro, particularly corporate finance, has experienced significant growth in mentions of experimental and quasi-experimental methods and identification over this time period, but a large component of the credibility revolution in finance is due to difference-in-differences. Bartik and shift-share instruments have grown across all fields, with the most pronounced growth in international trade and investment, economic history, and labor studies. Synthetic control has not seen continued growth, and has fallen since 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, 2024. "Tracking the Credibility Revolution across Fields," Papers 2405.20604, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2405.20604
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2010. "The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design Is Taking the Con out of Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    2. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    3. Ashesh Rambachan & Jonathan Roth, 2023. "A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2555-2591.
    4. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    5. Jonathan Roth & Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna, 2023. "When Is Parallel Trends Sensitive to Functional Form?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 737-747, March.
    6. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, November.
    7. Brantly Callaway & Andrew Goodman-Bacon & Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna, 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with a Continuous Treatment," Papers 2107.02637, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    8. Jonathan Roth, 2022. "Pretest with Caution: Event-Study Estimates after Testing for Parallel Trends," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 305-322, September.
    9. Ellora Derenoncourt, 2022. "Can You Move to Opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(2), pages 369-408, February.
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