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Optimal Bias-Correction and Valid Inference in High-Dimensional Ridge Regression: A Closed-Form Solution

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  • Zhaoxing Gao
  • Ruey S. Tsay

Abstract

Ridge regression is an indispensable tool in big data analysis. Yet its inherent bias poses a significant and longstanding challenge, compromising both statistical efficiency and scalability across various applications. To tackle this critical issue, we introduce an iterative strategy to correct bias effectively when the dimension $p$ is less than the sample size $n$. For $p>n$, our method optimally mitigates the bias such that any remaining bias in the proposed de-biased estimator is unattainable through linear transformations of the response data. To address the remaining bias when $p>n$, we employ a Ridge-Screening (RS) method, producing a reduced model suitable for bias correction. Crucially, under certain conditions, the true model is nested within our selected one, highlighting RS as a novel variable selection approach. Through rigorous analysis, we establish the asymptotic properties and valid inferences of our de-biased ridge estimators for both $p n$, where, both $p$ and $n$ may increase towards infinity, along with the number of iterations. We further validate these results using simulated and real-world data examples. Our method offers a transformative solution to the bias challenge in ridge regression inferences across various disciplines.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhaoxing Gao & Ruey S. Tsay, 2024. "Optimal Bias-Correction and Valid Inference in High-Dimensional Ridge Regression: A Closed-Form Solution," Papers 2405.00424, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2405.00424
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Abadie & Maximilian Kasy, 2019. "Choosing Among Regularized Estimators in Empirical Economics: The Risk of Machine Learning," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 743-762, December.
    2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2006. "Confidence Intervals for Diffusion Index Forecasts and Inference for Factor-Augmented Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 1133-1150, July.
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