IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2311.07071.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Market Equilibrium: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Kaichen Zhang
  • Zixuan Yuan
  • Hui Xiong

Abstract

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) exhibits the capability to generate creative content akin to human output with greater efficiency and reduced costs. This groundbreaking capability, however, has ignited a debate regarding its potential to displace human creators. In light of these discussions, this paper empirically investigates the impact of generative AI on market equilibrium, in the context of China's leading art outsourcing platform. We overcome the challenge of causal inference by identifying an unanticipated and sudden leak of an advanced image-generative AI as a natural experiment. This leak precipitated a notable reduction in the production costs of anime-style images compared to other genres, thereby providing a unique opportunity for difference-in-differences comparisons. Our analysis shows that the advent of generative AI led to a 64% reduction in average prices, yet it simultaneously spurred a 121% increase in order volume and a 56% increase in overall revenue. This growth is primarily driven by the rising demand for "low-end" personal orders, rather than commercial orders. Moreover, incumbent creators retain the majority of the market share and reap the most benefits of generative AI. Our research highlights the potential of generative AI to benefit all stakeholders across the platform economy, yielding both scholarly contributions and practical implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaichen Zhang & Zixuan Yuan & Hui Xiong, 2023. "The Impact of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Market Equilibrium: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Papers 2311.07071, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2311.07071
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.07071
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    2. Donald B. Rubin, 2005. "Causal Inference Using Potential Outcomes: Design, Modeling, Decisions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 322-331, March.
    3. Vandith Pamuru & Warut Khern-am-nuai & Karthik Kannan, 2021. "The Impact of an Augmented-Reality Game on Local Businesses: A Study of Pokémon Go on Restaurants," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 950-966, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mark Kattenberg & Bas Scheer & Jurre Thiel, 2023. "Causal forests with fixed effects for treatment effect heterogeneity in difference-in-differences," CPB Discussion Paper 452, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Peter Z. Schochet, 2021. "Statistical Power for Estimating Treatment Effects Using Difference-in-Differences and Comparative Interrupted Time Series Designs with Variation in Treatment Timing," Papers 2102.06770, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    3. Baker, Andrew C. & Larcker, David F. & Wang, Charles C.Y., 2022. "How much should we trust staggered difference-in-differences estimates?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 370-395.
    4. Bas Scheer & Wiljan van den Berge & Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2022. "Alternative Work Arrangements and Worker Outcomes: Evidence from Payrolling," CPB Discussion Paper 435, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Noémi Kreif & Richard Grieve & Iván Díaz & David Harrison, 2015. "Evaluation of the Effect of a Continuous Treatment: A Machine Learning Approach with an Application to Treatment for Traumatic Brain Injury," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(9), pages 1213-1228, September.
    6. Mac Clay, Pablo & Börner, Jan & Sellare, Jorge, 2023. "Institutional and macroeconomic stability mediate the effect of auctions on renewable energy capacity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    7. Martin Ravallion, 2022. "On the Gains from Tradable Benefits‐in‐kind: Evidence for Workfare in India," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(355), pages 770-787, July.
    8. Alex Hollingsworth & Krzysztof Karbownik & Melissa A. Thomasson & Anthony Wray, 2024. "The Gift of a Lifetime: The Hospital, Modern Medicine, and Mortality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(7), pages 2201-2238, July.
    9. Catalina Amuedo‐Dorantes & Francisca M. Antman, 2022. "De facto immigration enforcement, ICE raid awareness, and worker engagement," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 373-391, January.
    10. Peter Abell & Ofer Engel, 2021. "Subjective Causality and Counterfactuals in the Social Sciences: Toward an Ethnographic Causality?," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 50(4), pages 1842-1862, November.
    11. Shonosuke Sugasawa & Hisashi Noma, 2021. "Efficient screening of predictive biomarkers for individual treatment selection," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 77(1), pages 249-257, March.
    12. Anderson, D. Mark & Liang, Yang & Sabia, Joseph J., 2022. "Mandatory Seatbelt Laws and Traffic Fatalities: A Reassessment," IZA Discussion Papers 15843, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Zhao, Jun, 2020. "Doubly robust difference-in-differences estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 101-122.
    14. Binelli, Chiara & Comi, Simona & Meschi, Elena & Pagani, Laura, 2024. "Every cloud has a silver lining: The role of study time and class recordings on university students’ performance during COVID-19," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 305-328.
    15. Xiaozhou Ding & Christopher Bollinger & Michael Clark & William H. Hoyt, 2022. "Too Late to Buy a Home? School Redistricting and the Timing and Extent of Capitalization," CESifo Working Paper Series 9647, CESifo.
    16. Stefan Bauernschuster & Michael Grimm & Cathy M. Hajo, 2023. "The Impact of Margaret Sanger’s Birth Control Clinics on Early 20th Century U.S. Fertility and Mortality," CESifo Working Paper Series 10421, CESifo.
    17. Fabio Bothner & Annette Elisabeth Töller & Paul Philipp Schnase, 2022. "Do Lawsuits by ENGOs Improve Environmental Quality? Results from the Field of Air Pollution Policy in Germany," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, May.
    18. Bergvall, Sanna & Fernström, Clara & Ranehill, Eva & Sandberg, Anna, 2024. "The Impact of PhD Studies on Mental Health—A Longitudinal Population Study," Working Papers in Economics 846, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    19. DeMalach, Elad & Schlosser, Analia, 2024. "Short- and Long-Term Effects of Universal Preschool: Evidence from the Arab Population in Israel," CEPR Discussion Papers 18781, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Jones, Kelly & Wilcher, Britni, 2024. "Reducing maternal labor market detachment: A role for paid family leave," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2311.07071. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.