IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2305.19708.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Parameter Estimation Methods of Required Rate of Return

Author

Listed:
  • Battulga Gankhuu

Abstract

In this study, we introduce new estimation methods for the required rate of returns on equity and liabilities of private and public companies using the stochastic dividend discount model (DDM). To estimate the required rate of return on equity, we use the maximum likelihood method, the Bayesian method, and the Kalman filtering. We also provide a method that evaluates the market values of liabilities. We apply the model to a set of firms from the S\&P 500 index using historical dividend and price data over a 32--year period. Overall, the suggested methods can be used to estimate the required rate of returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Battulga Gankhuu, 2023. "Parameter Estimation Methods of Required Rate of Return," Papers 2305.19708, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2305.19708
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.19708
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arianna Agosto & Alessandra Mainini & Enrico Moretto, 2019. "Stochastic dividend discount model: covariance of random stock prices," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 552-568, July.
    2. Guglielmo D'Amico & Riccardo De Blasis, 2020. "A multivariate Markov chain stock model," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2020(4), pages 272-291, April.
    3. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    5. repec:ulb:ulbeco:2013/13388 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    7. Battulga Gankhuu & Jacob Kleinow & Altangerel Lkhamsuren & Andreas Horsch, 2022. "Dividends And Compound Poisson Processes: A New Stochastic Stock Price Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 25(03), pages 1-36, May.
    8. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    9. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    11. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Battulga Gankhuu, 2022. "Parameter Estimation Methods of Required Rate of Return on Stock," Papers 2206.09657, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    2. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    3. Battulga Gankhuu, 2022. "Augmented Dynamic Gordon Growth Model," Papers 2201.06012, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 1210, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    5. Matthieu Droumaguet & Anders Warne & Tomasz Wozniak, 2015. "Granger Causality and Regime Inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1191, The University of Melbourne.
    6. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmueller, 2020. "Business cycle dating and forecasting with real-time Swiss GDP data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 73-105, January.
    7. Kenwin Maung, 2021. "Estimating high-dimensional Markov-switching VARs," Papers 2107.12552, arXiv.org.
    8. Battulga Gankhuu, 2024. "Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Process," Papers 2404.11235, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    9. Cordis, Adriana S. & Kirby, Chris, 2011. "Regime-switching factor models in which the number of factors defines the regime," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 198-201, August.
    10. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
    11. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2005. "Indexing, cointegration and equity market regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 213-231.
    12. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Kastner, Gregor, 2019. "Sparse Bayesian time-varying covariance estimation in many dimensions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 98-115.
    14. Dmitry Kulikov, 2012. "Testing for Rational Speculative Bubbles on the Estonian Stock Market," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 4(1).
    15. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
    16. Masaru Chiba, 2023. "Robust and efficient specification tests in Markov-switching autoregressive models," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 99-137, April.
    17. Cowan, Adrian M. & Joutz, Frederick L., 2006. "An unobserved component model of asset pricing across financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 86-107.
    18. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    19. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03373425, HAL.
    20. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2011. "Forecasting recessions using stall speeds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2305.19708. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.