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Stochastic dividend discount model: covariance of random stock prices

Author

Listed:
  • Arianna Agosto

    (Banca Carige SpA)

  • Alessandra Mainini

    (Universitá Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Enrico Moretto

    (Universitá degli Studi dell’Insubria
    CNR-IMATI)

Abstract

The price of common stocks, defined as the sum of all future discounted dividends, is at the heart of both the dividend discount models (DDM) and the stochastic DDM (SDDM). Gordon and Shapiro (Manag Sci 3:102–110 1956) assume a deterministic and constant dividends’ growth rate, whereas Hurley and Johnson (Financ Anal J 4:50–54 1994, J Portf Manag 25(1)27–31 1998) and Yao (J Portf Manag 23(4)99–103 1997) introduce randomness by letting the growth rate be a finite-state random variable and random dividends behave in a Markovian fashion. In this second case expected stock price is determined, but what if higher-order moments are needed? In order to address a number of financial topics, the present contribution presents an explicit formula for the covariance between (possibly) correlated stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Arianna Agosto & Alessandra Mainini & Enrico Moretto, 2019. "Stochastic dividend discount model: covariance of random stock prices," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 552-568, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:43:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s12197-018-9455-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-018-9455-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arianna Agosto & Enrico Moretto, 2015. "Variance matters (in stochastic dividend discount models)," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 283-295, May.
    2. Polk, Christopher & Thompson, Samuel & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2006. "Cross-sectional forecasts of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 101-141, July.
    3. Myron J. Gordon & Eli Shapiro, 1956. "Capital Equipment Analysis: The Required Rate of Profit," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 102-110, October.
    4. Dimitrios Koutmos, 2015. "Is there a Positive Risk†Return Tradeoff? A Forward†Looking Approach to Measuring the Equity Premium," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(5), pages 974-1013, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Battulga Gankhuu, 2023. "Parameter Estimation Methods of Required Rate of Return," Papers 2305.19708, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    2. D'Amico, Guglielmo & De Blasis, Riccardo, 2024. "Dividend based risk measures: A Markov chain approach," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 471(C).
    3. Guglielmo D'Amico & Riccardo De Blasis, 2020. "A review of the Dividend Discount Model: from deterministic to stochastic models," Papers 2001.00465, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock valuation; Dividend discount model; Markov chain; Financial risk management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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