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Band-Pass Filtering with High-Dimensional Time Series

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  • Alessandro Giovannelli
  • Marco Lippi
  • Tommaso Proietti

Abstract

The paper deals with the construction of a synthetic indicator of economic growth, obtained by projecting a quarterly measure of aggregate economic activity, namely gross domestic product (GDP), into the space spanned by a finite number of smooth principal components, representative of the medium-to-long-run component of economic growth of a high-dimensional time series, available at the monthly frequency. The smooth principal components result from applying a cross-sectional filter distilling the low-pass component of growth in real time. The outcome of the projection is a monthly nowcast of the medium-to-long-run component of GDP growth. After discussing the theoretical properties of the indicator, we deal with the assessment of its reliability and predictive validity with reference to a panel of macroeconomic U.S. time series.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Giovannelli & Marco Lippi & Tommaso Proietti, 2023. "Band-Pass Filtering with High-Dimensional Time Series," Papers 2305.06618, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2305.06618
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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