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Violence in Guatemala pushes adults and children to seek work in Mexico

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  • Roxana Guti'errez-Romero

Abstract

This article estimates the impact of violence on emigration crossings from Guatemala to Mexico as final destination during 2009-2017. To identify causal effects, we use as instruments the variation in deforestation in Guatemala, and the seizing of cocaine in Colombia. We argue that criminal organizations deforest land in Guatemala, fueling violence and leading to emigration, particularly during exogenous supply shocks to cocaine. A one-point increase in the homicide rate differential between Guatemalan municipalities and Mexico, leads to 211 additional emigration crossings made by male adults. This rise in violence, also leads to 20 extra emigration crossings made by children.

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  • Roxana Guti'errez-Romero, 2022. "Violence in Guatemala pushes adults and children to seek work in Mexico," Papers 2212.12796, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2212.12796
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    1. Roxana Guti'errez-Romero & Nayeli Salgado, 2022. "New trends in South-South migration: The economic impact of COVID-19 and immigration enforcement," Papers 2212.12797, arXiv.org.
    2. Clemens, Michael A., 2021. "Violence, development, and migration waves: Evidence from Central American child migrant apprehensions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Susan Pozo & Thitima Puttitanun, 2015. "Immigration Enforcement, Parent–Child Separations, and Intent to Remigrate by Central American Deportees," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(6), pages 1825-1851, December.
    4. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2014. "On the Intended and Unintended Consequences of Enhanced Border and Interior Immigration Enforcement: Evidence from Deportees," IZA Discussion Papers 8458, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Fernanda Martínez Flores, 2020. "The Effects of Enhanced Enforcement at Mexico’s Southern Border: Evidence From Central American Deportees," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1597-1623, October.
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