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Two-dimensional forward and backward transition rates

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  • Theis Bathke
  • Marcus Christiansen

Abstract

Forward transition rates were originally introduced with the aim to evaluate life insurance liabilities market-consistently. While this idea turned out to have its limitations, recent literature repurposes forward transition rates as a tool for avoiding Markov assumptions in the calculation of life insurance reserves. While life insurance reserves are some form of conditional first-order moments, the calculation of conditional second-order moments needs an extension of the forward transition rate concept from one dimension to two dimensions. Two-dimensional forward transition rates are also needed for the calculation of path-dependent life insurance cash-flows as they occur upon contract modifications. Forward transition rates are designed for doing prospective calculations, and by a time-symmetric definition of so-called backward transition rates one can do retrospective calculations.

Suggested Citation

  • Theis Bathke & Marcus Christiansen, 2022. "Two-dimensional forward and backward transition rates," Papers 2204.12766, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2204.12766
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Norberg, Ragnar, 2010. "Forward mortality and other vital rates -- Are they the way forward?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 105-112, October.
    2. Christiansen, Marcus C., 2010. "Biometric worst-case scenarios for multi-state life insurance policies," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 190-197, October.
    3. Marcus Christiansen & Andreas Niemeyer, 2015. "On the forward rate concept in multi-state life insurance," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 295-327, April.
    4. Kristian Buchardt & Christian Furrer & Mogens Steffensen, 2019. "Forward transition rates," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 975-999, October.
    5. K. Buchardt & C. Furrer & M. Steffensen, 2018. "Forward transition rates," Papers 1811.00137, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
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