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Analyzing Micro-Founded General Equilibrium Models with Many Agents using Deep Reinforcement Learning

Author

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  • Michael Curry
  • Alexander Trott
  • Soham Phade
  • Yu Bai
  • Stephan Zheng

Abstract

Real economies can be modeled as a sequential imperfect-information game with many heterogeneous agents, such as consumers, firms, and governments. Dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) models are often used for macroeconomic analysis in this setting. However, finding general equilibria is challenging using existing theoretical or computational methods, especially when using microfoundations to model individual agents. Here, we show how to use deep multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) to find $\epsilon$-meta-equilibria over agent types in microfounded DGE models. Whereas standard MARL fails to learn non-trivial solutions, our structured learning curricula enable stable convergence to meaningful solutions. Conceptually, our approach is more flexible and does not need unrealistic assumptions, e.g., continuous market clearing, that are commonly used for analytical tractability. Furthermore, our end-to-end GPU implementation enables fast real-time convergence with a large number of RL economic agents. We showcase our approach in open and closed real-business-cycle (RBC) models with 100 worker-consumers, 10 firms, and a social planner who taxes and redistributes. We validate the learned solutions are $\epsilon$-meta-equilibria through best-response analyses, show that they align with economic intuitions, and show our approach can learn a spectrum of qualitatively distinct $\epsilon$-meta-equilibria in open RBC models. As such, we show that hardware-accelerated MARL is a promising framework for modeling the complexity of economies based on microfoundations.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Curry & Alexander Trott & Soham Phade & Yu Bai & Stephan Zheng, 2022. "Analyzing Micro-Founded General Equilibrium Models with Many Agents using Deep Reinforcement Learning," Papers 2201.01163, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2201.01163
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    Cited by:

    1. Kshama Dwarakanath & Svitlana Vyetrenko & Tucker Balch, 2024. "Empirical Equilibria in Agent-based Economic systems with Learning agents," Papers 2408.12038, arXiv.org.
    2. Qirui Mi & Zhiyu Zhao & Siyu Xia & Yan Song & Jun Wang & Haifeng Zhang, 2024. "Learning Macroeconomic Policies based on Microfoundations: A Stackelberg Mean Field Game Approach," Papers 2403.12093, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    3. Jialin Dong & Kshama Dwarakanath & Svitlana Vyetrenko, 2023. "Analyzing the Impact of Tax Credits on Households in Simulated Economic Systems with Learning Agents," Papers 2311.17252, arXiv.org.
    4. Kshama Dwarakanath & Jialin Dong & Svitlana Vyetrenko, 2024. "Tax Credits and Household Behavior: The Roles of Myopic Decision-Making and Liquidity in a Simulated Economy," Papers 2408.10391, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    5. Kshama Dwarakanath & Svitlana Vyetrenko & Peyman Tavallali & Tucker Balch, 2024. "ABIDES-Economist: Agent-Based Simulation of Economic Systems with Learning Agents," Papers 2402.09563, arXiv.org.

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