IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/14-44.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation

Author

Listed:
  • Thorsten Drautzburg

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

  • Harald Uhlig

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

We quantify the fiscal multipliers in response to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009. We extend the benchmark medium-scale New Keynesian model, allowing for credit-constrained households, the zero lower bound, government capital, and distortionary taxation. The posterior yields modestly positive short-run multipliers around 0.53 and modestly negative long-run multipliers around −0.36. We compare and relate recent literature multiplier calculations to ours. We explain the central empirical findings with the help of a simple three equation New Keynesian model with sticky wages and credit-constrained households. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:14-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2015.09.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2015.09.003
    Download Restriction: Access to full texts is restricted to ScienceDirect subscribers and institutional members. See http://www.sciencedirect.com/ for details.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.red.2015.09.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonio Spilimbergo & Steve Symansky & Olivier Blanchard & Carlo Cottarelli, 2009. "Fiscal Policy For The Crisis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(02), pages 26-32, July.
    2. Leeper, Eric M. & Plante, Michael & Traum, Nora, 2010. "Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 304-321, June.
    3. Christopher Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2014. "Is There A Fiscal Free Lunch In A Liquidity Trap?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 73-107, February.
    4. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2011. "What Fiscal Policy Is Effective at Zero Interest Rates?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, volume 25, pages 59-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michael Woodford, 2011. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, January.
    6. Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D.M., 2007. "Estimating the frequency of price re-optimization in Calvo-style models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2032-2047, October.
    7. Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2006. "How far are we from the slippery slope? The Laffer curve revisited," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-023, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    8. Jeffrey Clemens & Stephen Miran, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers on Subnational Government Spending," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 46-68, May.
    9. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M., 2011. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 211-227, February.
    10. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M., 2011. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 211-227, February.
    11. Günter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & René Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lindé & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Carlos d, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
    12. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    13. Kimball, Miles S, 1995. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1241-1277, November.
    14. Dupor, Bill & Li, Rong, 2015. "The expected inflation channel of government spending in the postwar U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 36-56.
    15. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    16. Boneva, Lena Mareen & Braun, R. Anton & Waki, Yuichiro, 2016. "Some unpleasant properties of loglinearized solutions when the nominal rate is zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 216-232.
    17. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2014. "Ambiguous Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2368-2399, August.
    18. Juillard, Michel, 1996. "Dynare : a program for the resolution and simulation of dynamic models with forward variables through the use of a relaxation algorithm," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9602, CEPREMAP.
    19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    20. Eric Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Susan Shu-Chun Yang, 2009. "Government Investment And Fiscal Stimulus In The Short And Long Runs," CAEPR Working Papers 2009-011, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    21. Isabel Correia & Emmanuel Farhi & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2013. "Unconventional Fiscal Policy at the Zero Bound," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1172-1211, June.
    22. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    23. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    24. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1992. "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(4), pages 645-661.
    25. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    26. Robert E. Hall, 2011. "The Long Slump," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 431-469, April.
    27. Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B. & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2010. "Government investment and fiscal stimulus," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1000-1012, November.
    28. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2009. "Government Investment and Fiscal Stimulus in the Short and Long Runs," NBER Working Papers 15153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. John H. Cochrane, 2013. "The New-Keynesian Liquidity Trap," NBER Working Papers 19476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Christopher J. Gust & Edward P. Herbst & J. David López-Salido & Matthew E. Smith, 2012. "The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-83, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    31. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F Rubio-Ramírez, 2014. "Supply-Side Policies and the Zero Lower Bound," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(2), pages 248-260, June.
    32. Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2017. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2409-2454, August.
    33. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2010. "The paradox of toil," Staff Reports 433, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    34. Christopher Gust & Edward Herbst & David López-Salido & Matthew E. Smith, 2017. "The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1971-2006, July.
    35. Lawrance, Emily C, 1991. "Poverty and the Rate of Time Preference: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(1), pages 54-77, February.
    36. Uhlig, Harald, 2012. "Economics and reality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 29-41.
    37. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, "undated". "Fiscal Multipliers: Liquidity Traps and Currency Unions," Working Paper 78556, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    38. Conley, Timothy G. & Dupor, Bill, 2013. "The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: Solely a government jobs program?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 535-549.
    39. Jeffrey Clemens & Stephen Miran, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers on Subnational Government Spending," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 46-68, May.
    40. Karel R. S. M. Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations-Driven Liquidity Trap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(4), pages 1637-1667.
    41. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
    42. Oh, Hyunseung & Reis, Ricardo, 2012. "Targeted transfers and the fiscal response to the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 50-64.
    43. Carlstrom, Chartles & Fuerst , Timothy & Paustian, Matthias, 2013. "Policy multipliers under an interest rate peg of deterministic versus stochastic duration," Bank of England working papers 475, Bank of England.
    44. Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2011. "The Laffer curve revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 305-327.
    45. Saul Pleeter & John T. Warner, 2001. "The Personal Discount Rate: Evidence from Military Downsizing Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 33-53, March.
    46. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    47. Todd B. Walker & Nora Traum & Eric M. Leeper, 2011. "The Fiscal Multiplier Morass: A Bayesian Perspective," 2011 Meeting Papers 583, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    48. Harald Uhlig, 2010. "Some Fiscal Calculus," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 30-34, May.
    49. Buiter, Willem, 2009. "The unfortunate uselessness of most ’state of the art’ academic monetary economics," MPRA Paper 58407, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Mar 2009.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jesper Lindé & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "Should we use linearized models to calculate fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 937-965, November.
    2. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
    3. Coenen, Günter & Straub, Roland & Trabandt, Mathias, 2013. "Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 367-386.
    4. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2023. "Fiscal stimulus in liquidity traps: Conventional or unconventional policies?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2017. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2409-2454, August.
    6. Timothy S. Hills & Taisuke Nakata, 2018. "Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 155-172, February.
    7. Giambattista, Eric & Pennings, Steven, 2017. "When is the government transfer multiplier large?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 525-543.
    8. Eric Sims & Jonathan Wolff, 2018. "The Output And Welfare Effects Of Government Spending Shocks Over The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1403-1435, August.
    9. Giambattista,Eric & Pennings,Steven Michael, 2017. "When is the government transfer multiplier large ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8184, The World Bank.
    10. Gunter Coenen & Roland Straub & Mathias Trabandt, 2012. "Fiscal Policy and the Great Recession in the Euro Area," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 71-76, May.
    11. Julio Carrillo & Celine Poilly, 2013. "How do financial frictions affect the spending multiplier during a liquidity trap?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 296-311, April.
    12. Christopher Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2014. "Is There A Fiscal Free Lunch In A Liquidity Trap?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 73-107, February.
    13. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    14. Javier Andrés & José E. Boscá & Javier Ferri, 2016. "Instruments, rules, and household debt: the effects of fiscal policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 419-443.
    15. Gregory E. Givens, 2022. "Unemployment, Partial Insurance, And The Multiplier Effects Of Government Spending," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(2), pages 571-599, May.
    16. Thomas Brand, 2017. "Vitesse et composition des ajustements budgétaires en équilibre général : une analyse appliquée à la zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 68(HS1), pages 159-182.
    17. Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2015. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass: Prior and Posterior Analysis," NBER Working Papers 21433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Sarah Zubairy, 2014. "On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates From A Medium Scale Dsge Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 169-195, February.
    19. Gadatsch, Niklas & Hauzenberger, Klemens & Stähler, Nikolai, 2015. "German and the rest of euro area fiscal policy during the crisis," Discussion Papers 05/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2012. "FiMod — A DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 239-261.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal stimulus; New Keynesian model; Liquidity trap; Zero lower bound; Fiscal multiplier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:14-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.