IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2112.03946.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) and Enhanced Root Mean Square Error (ERMSE): Deep Learning for Stock Price Movement Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Ashish Kumar
  • Abeer Alsadoon
  • P. W. C. Prasad
  • Salma Abdullah
  • Tarik A. Rashid
  • Duong Thu Hang Pham
  • Tran Quoc Vinh Nguyen

Abstract

The prediction of stock price movement direction is significant in financial circles and academic. Stock price contains complex, incomplete, and fuzzy information which makes it an extremely difficult task to predict its development trend. Predicting and analysing financial data is a nonlinear, time-dependent problem. With rapid development in machine learning and deep learning, this task can be performed more effectively by a purposely designed network. This paper aims to improve prediction accuracy and minimizing forecasting error loss through deep learning architecture by using Generative Adversarial Networks. It was proposed a generic model consisting of Phase-space Reconstruction (PSR) method for reconstructing price series and Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) which is a combination of two neural networks which are Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) as Generative model and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) as Discriminative model for adversarial training to forecast the stock market. LSTM will generate new instances based on historical basic indicators information and then CNN will estimate whether the data is predicted by LSTM or is real. It was found that the Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) has performed well on the enhanced root mean square error to LSTM, as it was 4.35% more accurate in predicting the direction and reduced processing time and RMSE by 78 secs and 0.029, respectively. This study provides a better result in the accuracy of the stock index. It seems that the proposed system concentrates on minimizing the root mean square error and processing time and improving the direction prediction accuracy, and provides a better result in the accuracy of the stock index.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashish Kumar & Abeer Alsadoon & P. W. C. Prasad & Salma Abdullah & Tarik A. Rashid & Duong Thu Hang Pham & Tran Quoc Vinh Nguyen, 2021. "Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) and Enhanced Root Mean Square Error (ERMSE): Deep Learning for Stock Price Movement Prediction," Papers 2112.03946, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2112.03946
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2112.03946
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xi Zhang & Yixuan Li & Senzhang Wang & Binxing Fang & Philip S. Yu, 2018. "Enhancing Stock Market Prediction with Extended Coupled Hidden Markov Model over Multi-Sourced Data," Papers 1809.00306, arXiv.org.
    2. Basak, Suryoday & Kar, Saibal & Saha, Snehanshu & Khaidem, Luckyson & Dey, Sudeepa Roy, 2019. "Predicting the direction of stock market prices using tree-based classifiers," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 552-567.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baoqiang Zhan & Shu Zhang & Helen S. Du & Xiaoguang Yang, 2022. "Exploring Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities Using Machine Learning Strategy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 861-882, October.
    2. Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2023. "Forecasting rare earth stock prices with machine learning," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    3. Saqib Farid & Rubeena Tashfeen & Tahseen Mohsan & Arsal Burhan, 2023. "Forecasting stock prices using a data mining method: Evidence from emerging market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1911-1917, April.
    4. Zhou, Zhongbao & Gao, Meng & Liu, Qing & Xiao, Helu, 2020. "Forecasting stock price movements with multiple data sources: Evidence from stock market in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).
    5. Barboza, Flavio & Altman, Edward, 2024. "Predicting financial distress in Latin American companies: A comparative analysis of logistic regression and random forest models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Şirin Özlem & Omer Faruk Tan, 2022. "Predicting cash holdings using supervised machine learning algorithms," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, December.
    7. Vitor Azevedo & Christopher Hoegner, 2023. "Enhancing stock market anomalies with machine learning," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 195-230, January.
    8. Htet Htet Htun & Michael Biehl & Nicolai Petkov, 2023. "Survey of feature selection and extraction techniques for stock market prediction," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
    9. Han Gui, 2024. "Machine learning in weekly movement prediction," Papers 2407.09831, arXiv.org.
    10. Yizhe Xu & Tom H. Greene & Adam P. Bress & Brandon K. Bellows & Yue Zhang & Zugui Zhang & Paul Kolm & William S. Weintraub & Andrew S. Moran & Jincheng Shen, 2022. "An Efficient Approach for Optimizing the Cost-effective Individualized Treatment Rule Using Conditional Random Forest," Papers 2204.10971, arXiv.org.
    11. Xu, Yingying & Dai, Yifan & Guo, Lingling & Chen, Jingjing, 2024. "Leveraging machine learning to forecast carbon returns: Factors from energy markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    12. Yang, Yanlin & Hu, Xuemei & Jiang, Huifeng, 2022. "Group penalized logistic regressions predict up and down trends for stock prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    13. Mercadier, Mathieu & Lardy, Jean-Pierre, 2019. "Credit spread approximation and improvement using random forest regression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 351-365.
    14. Goutte, Stéphane & Le, Hoang-Viet & Liu, Fei & von Mettenheim, Hans-Jörg, 2023. "Deep learning and technical analysis in cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. Junwei Chen, 2023. "Analysis of Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Machine Learning," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-25, January.
    16. Naderi Semiromi, Hamed & Lessmann, Stefan & Peters, Wiebke, 2020. "News will tell: Forecasting foreign exchange rates based on news story events in the economy calendar," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Shuo Sun & Rundong Wang & Bo An, 2021. "Reinforcement Learning for Quantitative Trading," Papers 2109.13851, arXiv.org.
    18. Ignacio Escanuela Romana & Clara Escanuela Nieves, 2023. "A spectral approach to stock market performance," Papers 2305.05762, arXiv.org.
    19. Ayush Singh & Anshu K. Jha & Amit N. Kumar, 2024. "Prediction of Cryptocurrency Prices through a Path Dependent Monte Carlo Simulation," Papers 2405.12988, arXiv.org.
    20. Catalin Stoean & Wiesław Paja & Ruxandra Stoean & Adrian Sandita, 2019. "Deep architectures for long-term stock price prediction with a heuristic-based strategy for trading simulations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-19, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2112.03946. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.