Forecasting interest rates through Vasicek and CIR models: A partitioning approach
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1002/for.2642
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Giuseppe Orlando & Rosa Maria Mininni & Michele Bufalo, 2019. "Forecasting interest rates through Vasicek and CIR models: a partitioning approach," Papers 1901.02246, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2019.
References listed on IDEAS
- John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005.
"A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
- Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003.
"Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "MULTIPLEBREAKS: RATS procedure to perform multiple structural change analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00138, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate examples of Bai-Perron procedure," Statistical Software Components RTZ00008, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "BAIPERRON: RATS procedure to perform Bai-Perron Test for Multiple Structural Changes," Statistical Software Components RTS00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Giuseppe Orlando & Rosa Maria Mininni & Michele Bufalo, 2019. "Interest rates calibration with a CIR model," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 20(4), pages 370-387, September.
- Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
- Giuseppe Orlando & Rosa Maria Mininni & Michele Bufalo, 2019. "A new approach to forecast market interest rates through the CIR model," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(2), pages 267-292, September.
- Moreno, Manuel & Platania, Federico, 2015. "A cyclical square-root model for the term structure of interest rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(1), pages 109-121.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Gareth Liu-Evans, 2021. "Improving the Estimation and Predictions of Small Time Series Models," Working Papers 202106, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
- Bufalo, Michele & Orlando, Giuseppe, 2023. "A three-factor stochastic model for forecasting production of energy materials," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
- Marco Di Francesco & Kevin Kamm, 2021. "How to handle negative interest rates in a CIR framework," Papers 2106.03716, arXiv.org.
- Anna Battauz & Francesco Rotondi, 2022. "American options and stochastic interest rates," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 567-604, October.
- Giuseppe Orlando & Michele Bufalo, 2022. "A generalized two‐factor square‐root framework for modeling occurrences of natural catastrophes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1608-1622, December.
- Bufalo, Michele & Ceci, Claudia & Orlando, Giuseppe, 2024. "Addressing the financial impact of natural disasters in the era of climate change," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
- Giuseppe Orlando & Michele Bufalo, 2021. "Interest rates forecasting: Between Hull and White and the CIR#—How to make a single‐factor model work," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1566-1580, December.
- Giuseppe Orlando & Michele Bufalo, 2021. "Empirical Evidences on the Interconnectedness between Sampling and Asset Returns’ Distributions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-35, May.
- Ascione, Giacomo & Mehrdoust, Farshid & Orlando, Giuseppe & Samimi, Oldouz, 2023. "Foreign Exchange Options on Heston-CIR Model Under Lévy Process Framework," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 446(C).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Giuseppe Orlando & Michele Bufalo, 2021. "Interest rates forecasting: Between Hull and White and the CIR#—How to make a single‐factor model work," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1566-1580, December.
- Marco Di Francesco & Kevin Kamm, 2021. "How to handle negative interest rates in a CIR framework," Papers 2106.03716, arXiv.org.
- Cai, Lili & Swanson, Norman R., 2011.
"In- and out-of-sample specification analysis of spot rate models: Further evidence for the period 1982-2008,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 743-764, September.
- Norman R. Swanson & Lili Cai, 2011. "In- and Out-of-Sample Specification Analysis of Spot Rate Models: Further Evidence for the Period 1982-2008," Departmental Working Papers 201102, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Moreno, Manuel & Novales, Alfonso & Platania, Federico, 2018.
"A term structure model under cyclical fluctuations in interest rates,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 140-150.
- Manuel Moreno & Alfonso Novales & Federico Platania, 2019. "A term structure model under cyclical fluctuations in interest rates," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2019-31, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Giuseppe Orlando & Rosa Maria Mininni & Michele Bufalo, 2018. "On The Calibration of Short-Term Interest Rates Through a CIR Model," Papers 1806.03683, arXiv.org.
- Renne, Jean-Paul, 2016. "A tractable interest rate model with explicit monetary policy rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(3), pages 873-887.
- Tarik Bazgour & Federico Platania, 2022. "A defaultable bond model with cyclical fluctuations in the spread process," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 312(2), pages 647-672, May.
- Prakash Chakraborty & Kiseop Lee, 2022. "Bond Prices Under Information Asymmetry and a Short Rate with Instantaneous Feedback," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 613-634, June.
- Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
- Frank De Jong & Joost Driessen & Antoon Pelsser, 2001. "Libor Market Models versus Swap Market Models for Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 5(3), pages 201-237.
- João Nunes, 2011. "American options and callable bonds under stochastic interest rates and endogenous bankruptcy," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 283-332, October.
- Spiros H. Martzoukos & Theodore M. Barnhill Jr., 1998. "The Survival Zone For A Bond With Both Call And Put Options Embedded," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 419-430, December.
- Thorsten Moenig, 2021. "Efficient valuation of variable annuity portfolios with dynamic programming," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1023-1055, December.
- Choi, Jaehyung, 2012. "Spontaneous symmetry breaking of arbitrage," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3206-3218.
- Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
- Poskitt, Russell, 2008. "Interest rate futures and forwards: Evidence from the sterling futures and FRA markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 399-412, December.
- repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
- Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2011, January-A.
- Moreno, Manuel & Platania, Federico, 2015. "A cyclical square-root model for the term structure of interest rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(1), pages 109-121.
- Makushkin, Mikhail & Lapshin, Victor, 2023. "Dynamic Nelson–Siegel model for market risk estimation of bonds: Practical implementation," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 69, pages 5-27.
- Oldrich Alfons Vasicek & Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2021. "Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Review, Trends, and Perspectives," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(2), pages 1-28, Abril - J.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:39:y:2020:i:4:p:569-579. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.