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Bitcoin option pricing: A market attention approach

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  • Alvaro Guinea Julia
  • Alet Roux

Abstract

A model is proposed for Bitcoin prices that takes into account market attention. Market attention, modeled by a mean-reverting Cox-Ingersoll-Ross processes, affects the volatility of Bitcoin returns, with some delay. The model is affine and tractable, with closed formulae for the conditional characteristic functions with respect to both the conventional and a delayed filtration. This leads to semi-closed formulae for European call and put prices. A maximum likelihood estimation procedure is provided, as well as a method for changing to a risk-neutral measure. The model compares very well against classical and attention-based models when tested on real data.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvaro Guinea Julia & Alet Roux, 2021. "Bitcoin option pricing: A market attention approach," Papers 2107.12447, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12447
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aalborg, Halvor Aarhus & Molnár, Peter & de Vries, Jon Erik, 2019. "What can explain the price, volatility and trading volume of Bitcoin?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 255-265.
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