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A News-based Machine Learning Model for Adaptive Asset Pricing

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  • Liao Zhu
  • Haoxuan Wu
  • Martin T. Wells

Abstract

The paper proposes a new asset pricing model -- the News Embedding UMAP Selection (NEUS) model, to explain and predict the stock returns based on the financial news. Using a combination of various machine learning algorithms, we first derive a company embedding vector for each basis asset from the financial news. Then we obtain a collection of the basis assets based on their company embedding. After that for each stock, we select the basis assets to explain and predict the stock return with high-dimensional statistical methods. The new model is shown to have a significantly better fitting and prediction power than the Fama-French 5-factor model.

Suggested Citation

  • Liao Zhu & Haoxuan Wu & Martin T. Wells, 2021. "A News-based Machine Learning Model for Adaptive Asset Pricing," Papers 2106.07103, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2106.07103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    2. Liao Zhu & Robert A. Jarrow & Martin T. Wells, 2021. "Time-Invariance Coefficients Tests with the Adaptive Multi-Factor Model," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(04), pages 1-30, December.
    3. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Robert A. Jarrow & Rinald Murataj & Martin T. Wells & Liao Zhu, 2023. "The Low-Volatility Anomaly And The Adaptive Multi-Factor Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 26(04n05), pages 1-33, August.
    5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    6. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    7. Liao Zhu & Sumanta Basu & Robert A. Jarrow & Martin T. Wells, 2020. "High-Dimensional Estimation, Basis Assets, and the Adaptive Multi-Factor Model," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-52, December.
    8. Friedman, Jerome H. & Hastie, Trevor & Tibshirani, Rob, 2010. "Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i01).
    9. Bien, Jacob & Tibshirani, Robert, 2011. "Hierarchical Clustering With Prototypes via Minimax Linkage," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(495), pages 1075-1084.
    10. Yanci Zhang & Tianming Du & Yujie Sun & Lawrence Donohue & Rui Dai, 2021. "Form 10-Q Itemization," Papers 2104.11783, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    11. Robert Jarrow, 2016. "Bubbles And Multiple-Factor Asset Pricing Models," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(01), pages 1-19, February.
    12. Song, Song & Bickel, Peter J., 2011. "Large vector auto regressions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-048, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    13. repec:ulb:ulbeco:2013/13388 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Liao Zhu, 2021. "The Adaptive Multi-Factor Model and the Financial Market," Papers 2107.14410, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.

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