IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2106.06373.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Applying endogenous learning models in energy system optimization

Author

Listed:
  • Jabir Ali Ouassou
  • Julian Straus
  • Marte Fodstad
  • Gunhild Reigstad
  • Ove Wolfgang

Abstract

Conventional energy production based on fossil fuels causes emissions which contribute to global warming. Accurate energy system models are required for a cost-optimal transition to a zero-emission energy system, an endeavor that requires an accurate modeling of cost reductions due to technological learning effects. In this review, we summarize common methodologies for modeling technological learning and associated cost reductions. The focus is on learning effects in hydrogen production technologies due to their importance in a low-carbon energy system, as well as the application of endogenous learning in energy system models. Finally, we present an overview of the learning rates of relevant low-carbon technologies required to model future energy systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Jabir Ali Ouassou & Julian Straus & Marte Fodstad & Gunhild Reigstad & Ove Wolfgang, 2021. "Applying endogenous learning models in energy system optimization," Papers 2106.06373, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2106.06373
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2106.06373
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. O. Schmidt & A. Hawkes & A. Gambhir & I. Staffell, 2017. "The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 1-8, August.
    3. Yi Zhou & Alun Gu, 2019. "Learning Curve Analysis of Wind Power and Photovoltaics Technology in US: Cost Reduction and the Importance of Research, Development and Demonstration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Simonas Cerniauskas & Thomas Grube & Aaron Praktiknjo & Detlef Stolten & Martin Robinius, 2019. "Future Hydrogen Markets for Transportation and Industry: The Impact of CO 2 Taxes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-26, December.
    5. Lohwasser, Richard & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Relating R&D and investment policies to CCS market diffusion through two-factor learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 439-452.
    6. Upstill, Garrett & Hall, Peter, 2018. "Estimating the learning rate of a technology with multiple variants: The case of carbon storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 498-505.
    7. Amro Elshurafa & Shahad Albardi & Carlo Andrea Bollino, 2017. "Estimating the Learning Curve of Solar PV Balance-of-Systems for Over 20 Countries," Discussion Papers ks-2017--dp015, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.
    8. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    9. Viebahn, Peter & Lechon, Yolanda & Trieb, Franz, 2011. "The potential role of concentrated solar power (CSP) in Africa and Europe--A dynamic assessment of technology development, cost development and life cycle inventories until 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 4420-4430, August.
    10. Narbel, Patrick André & Hansen, Jan Petter, 2014. "Estimating the cost of future global energy supply," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 91-97.
    11. Rubin, Edward S. & Yeh, Sonia & Antes, Matt & Berkenpas, Michael & Davison, John, 2007. "Use of experience curves to estimate the future cost of power plants with CO2 capture," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt46x6h0n0, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    12. Duke, Richard & Williams, Robert & Payne, Adam, 2005. "Accelerating residential PV expansion: demand analysis for competitive electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(15), pages 1912-1929, October.
    13. Nicodemus, Julia Haltiwanger, 2018. "Technological learning and the future of solar H2: A component learning comparison of solar thermochemical cycles and electrolysis with solar PV," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 100-109.
    14. Yeh, Sonia & Rubin, Edward S., 2012. "A review of uncertainties in technology experience curves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 762-771.
    15. Rubin, Edward S. & Azevedo, Inês M.L. & Jaramillo, Paulina & Yeh, Sonia, 2015. "A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 198-218.
    16. Guo, Jian-Xin & Huang, Chen, 2020. "Feasible roadmap for CCS retrofit of coal-based power plants to reduce Chinese carbon emissions by 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    17. Ding, H. & Zhou, D.Q. & Liu, G.Q. & Zhou, P., 2020. "Cost reduction or electricity penetration: Government R&D-induced PV development and future policy schemes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    18. Handayani, Kamia & Krozer, Yoram & Filatova, Tatiana, 2019. "From fossil fuels to renewables: An analysis of long-term scenarios considering technological learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 134-146.
    19. Williams, Eric & Hittinger, Eric & Carvalho, Rexon & Williams, Ryan, 2017. "Wind power costs expected to decrease due to technological progress," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 427-435.
    20. Sascha Samadi, 2016. "A Review of Factors Influencing the Cost Development of Electricity Generation Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-25, November.
    21. Mauleón, Ignacio & Hamoudi, Hamid, 2017. "Photovoltaic and wind cost decrease estimation: Implications for investment analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1054-1065.
    22. Tu, Qiang & Betz, Regina & Mo, Jianlei & Fan, Ying & Liu, Yu, 2019. "Achieving grid parity of wind power in China – Present levelized cost of electricity and future evolution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1053-1064.
    23. Narbel, Patrick A. & Hansen, Jan Petter, 2014. "Estimating the cost of future global energy supply," Discussion Papers 2014/14, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    24. Kim, Hansung & Cheon, Hyungkyu & Ahn, Young-Hwan & Choi, Dong Gu, 2019. "Uncertainty quantification and scenario generation of future solar photovoltaic price for use in energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 370-379.
    25. Wei, Max & Smith, Sarah J. & Sohn, Michael D., 2017. "Experience curve development and cost reduction disaggregation for fuel cell markets in Japan and the US," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 346-357.
    26. Candelise, Chiara & Winskel, Mark & Gross, Robert J.K., 2013. "The dynamics of solar PV costs and prices as a challenge for technology forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 96-107.
    27. Samadi, Sascha, 2018. "The experience curve theory and its application in the field of electricity generation technologies – A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2346-2364.
    28. Chen, Hao & Gao, Xin-Ya & Liu, Jian-Yu & Zhang, Qian & Yu, Shiwei & Kang, Jia-Ning & Yan, Rui & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2020. "The grid parity analysis of onshore wind power in China: A system cost perspective," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 22-30.
    29. Odam, Neil & de Vries, Frans P., 2020. "Innovation modelling and multi-factor learning in wind energy technology," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Heggarty & Jean-Yves Bourmaud & Robin Girard & Georges Kariniotakis, 2024. "Assessing the relative impacts of maximum investment rate and temporal detail in capacity expansion models applied to power systems," Post-Print hal-04383397, HAL.
    2. Seck, Gondia S. & Hache, Emmanuel & Sabathier, Jerome & Guedes, Fernanda & Reigstad, Gunhild A. & Straus, Julian & Wolfgang, Ove & Ouassou, Jabir A. & Askeland, Magnus & Hjorth, Ida & Skjelbred, Hans , 2022. "Hydrogen and the decarbonization of the energy system in europe in 2050: A detailed model-based analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Heggarty, Thomas & Bourmaud, Jean-Yves & Girard, Robin & Kariniotakis, Georges, 2024. "Assessing the relative impacts of maximum investment rate and temporal detail in capacity expansion models applied to power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    4. Mathias Mier & Jacqueline Adelowo & Valeriya Azarova, 2022. "Endogenous Technological Change in Power Markets," ifo Working Paper Series 373, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    5. Kosugi, Takanobu, 2023. "Learning rate matters: Reexamining optimal power expansion planning with endogenized technological experience curves," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jabir Ali Ouassou & Julian Straus & Marte Fodstad & Gunhild Reigstad & Ove Wolfgang, 2021. "Applying Endogenous Learning Models in Energy System Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
    2. Elia, A. & Kamidelivand, M. & Rogan, F. & Ó Gallachóir, B., 2021. "Impacts of innovation on renewable energy technology cost reductions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Castrejon-Campos, Omar & Aye, Lu & Hui, Felix Kin Peng, 2022. "Effects of learning curve models on onshore wind and solar PV cost developments in the USA," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Reinhard Haas & Marlene Sayer & Amela Ajanovic & Hans Auer, 2023. "Technological learning: Lessons learned on energy technologies," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), March.
    5. Thomassen, Gwenny & Van Passel, Steven & Dewulf, Jo, 2020. "A review on learning effects in prospective technology assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Rubin, Edward S. & Azevedo, Inês M.L. & Jaramillo, Paulina & Yeh, Sonia, 2015. "A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 198-218.
    7. Wei, Max & Smith, Sarah J. & Sohn, Michael D., 2017. "Experience curve development and cost reduction disaggregation for fuel cell markets in Japan and the US," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 346-357.
    8. Nemet, Gregory F. & Lu, Jiaqi & Rai, Varun & Rao, Rohan, 2020. "Knowledge spillovers between PV installers can reduce the cost of installing solar PV," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Elia, A. & Taylor, M. & Ó Gallachóir, B. & Rogan, F., 2020. "Wind turbine cost reduction: A detailed bottom-up analysis of innovation drivers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    10. Duffy, Aidan & Hand, Maureen & Wiser, Ryan & Lantz, Eric & Dalla Riva, Alberto & Berkhout, Volker & Stenkvist, Maria & Weir, David & Lacal-Arántegui, Roberto, 2020. "Land-based wind energy cost trends in Germany, Denmark, Ireland, Norway, Sweden and the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    11. Schauf, Magnus & Schwenen, Sebastian, 2021. "Mills of progress grind slowly? Estimating learning rates for onshore wind energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    12. Alemzero, David & Acheampong, Theophilus & Huaping, Sun, 2021. "Prospects of wind energy deployment in Africa: Technical and economic analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 652-666.
    13. Santhakumar, Srinivasan & Meerman, Hans & Faaij, André, 2021. "Improving the analytical framework for quantifying technological progress in energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. Wu, X.D. & Yang, Q. & Chen, G.Q. & Hayat, T. & Alsaedi, A., 2016. "Progress and prospect of CCS in China: Using learning curve to assess the cost-viability of a 2×600MW retrofitted oxyfuel power plant as a case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1274-1285.
    15. Castrejon-Campos, Omar & Aye, Lu & Hui, Felix Kin Peng & Vaz-Serra, Paulo, 2022. "Economic and environmental impacts of public investment in clean energy RD&D," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    16. Samadi, Sascha, 2018. "The experience curve theory and its application in the field of electricity generation technologies – A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2346-2364.
    17. van den Broek, Machteld & Berghout, Niels & Rubin, Edward S., 2015. "The potential of renewables versus natural gas with CO2 capture and storage for power generation under CO2 constraints," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1296-1322.
    18. Hernandez-Negron, Christian G. & Baker, Erin & Goldstein, Anna P., 2023. "A hypothesis for experience curves of related technologies with an application to wind energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    19. Tadeusz Skoczkowski & Sławomir Bielecki & Joanna Wojtyńska, 2019. "Long-Term Projection of Renewable Energy Technology Diffusion," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-24, November.
    20. Ranjit R. Desai & Eric Hittinger & Eric Williams, 2022. "Interaction of Consumer Heterogeneity and Technological Progress in the US Electric Vehicle Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-25, June.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2106.06373. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.