IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2009.03436.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Globalization? Trade War? A Counterbalance Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Arthur Hu
  • Xingwei Hu
  • Hui Tong

Abstract

The embrace of globalization and protectionism among economies has ebbed and flowed over the past few decades. These fluctuations call for quantitative analytics to help countries improve their trade policies. Changing attitudes about globalization also imply that the best trade policies may vary over time and be country-specific. We argue that the imports and exports of all economies constitute a counterbalanced network where conflict and cooperation are two sides of the same coin. Quantitative competitiveness is then formulated for each country using a network counterbalance equilibrium. A country could improve its relative strength in the network by embracing globalization, protectionism, trade collaboration, or conflict. This paper presents the necessary conditions for globalization and trade wars, evaluates their side effects, derives national bargaining powers, identifies appropriate targets for conflict or collaboration, and recommends fair resolutions for trade conflicts. Data and events from the past twenty years support these conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Arthur Hu & Xingwei Hu & Hui Tong, 2020. "Globalization? Trade War? A Counterbalance Perspective," Papers 2009.03436, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2009.03436
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.03436
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xingwei Hu, 2020. "Sorting Big Data by Revealed Preference with Application to College Ranking," Papers 2003.12198, arXiv.org.
    2. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "Trade Wars and Trade Talks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 675-708, August.
    3. Hu, Xingwei & Shapley, Lloyd S., 2003. "On authority distributions in organizations: equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 132-152, October.
    4. Ralph Ossa, 2014. "Trade Wars and Trade Talks with Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 4104-4146, December.
    5. Harrison, Glenn W & Rutstrom, E E, 1991. "Trade Wars, Trade Negotiations and Applied Game Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 420-435, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hu, Arthur & Hu, Xingwei & Tong, Hui, 2022. "Globalization? Trade war? A counterbalance perspective," MPRA Paper 114871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bekkers, Eddy & Teh, Robert, 2019. "Potential economic effects of a global trade conflict: Projecting the medium-run effects with the WTO global trade model," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2019-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    3. Bekkers, Eddy & Teh, Robert, 2019. "Potential Economic Effects of a Global Trade Conflict: Projecting the medium-run effects with the WTO Global Trade Model," Conference papers 333120, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Thiemo Fetzer & Carlo Schwarz, 2021. "Tariffs and Politics: Evidence from Trump’s Trade Wars," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(636), pages 1717-1741.
    5. David R. DeRemer, 2015. "Opportunities for Cooperation in Removing Prohibitive Trade Barriers," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1533, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    6. He, Chuantian & Li, Chunding & Wang, Jing & Whalley, John, 2017. "The Armington assumption and the size of optimal tariffs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 214-222.
    7. Maggi, Giovanni, 2020. "Anti-lobbying gains from international agreements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 20-34.
    8. Kyle Bagwell & Chad P. Bown & Robert W. Staiger, 2016. "Is the WTO Passé?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1125-1231, December.
    9. Chunding Li & John Whalley & Chuantian He & Chuangwei Lin, 2021. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and the Lack of Retaliatory Trade Intervention," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 67(1), pages 78-105.
    10. Staiger, Robert & Bagwell, Kyle & Bown, Chad, 2015. "Is the WTO Passé?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Sen, Rahul & Narayanan, Badri & Srivastava, Sadhana & Khorana, Sangeeta & Iyer, Chidambaran, 2020. "The Long-term Impact of Trade Wars and ‘Make in India on the Indian Economy," Conference papers 330229, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Adib Bagh & Josh Ederington, 2024. "Equity‐efficiency tradeoffs in international bargaining," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 782-804, April.
    13. Afontsev, S., 2020. "Politics and economics of trade wars," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 193-198.
    14. Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David, 2017. "US trade wars with emerging countries in the 21st century: Make America and Its partners lose again," IFPRI discussion papers 1669, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Furceri, Davide & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Papageorgiou, Chris & Wibaux, Pauline, 2023. "Retaliation through Temporary Trade Barriers," CEPR Discussion Papers 17853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Xingwei Hu, 2021. "Decoding Causality by Fictitious VAR Modeling," Papers 2111.07465, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    17. Joseph S Shapiro, 2021. "The Environmental Bias of Trade Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 831-886.
    18. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 2016. "The Design of Trade Agreements," NBER Working Papers 22087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Beshkar, Mostafa & Lee, Ryan, 2022. "How does import market power matter for trade agreements?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. repec:ags:aaea22:335549 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Soderbery, Anson, 2018. "Trade elasticities, heterogeneity, and optimal tariffs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 44-62.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2009.03436. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.