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Hedging and machine learning driven crude oil data analysis using a refined Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model

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  • Humayra Shoshi
  • Indranil SenGupta

Abstract

In this paper, a refined Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BN-S) model is implemented to find an optimal hedging strategy for commodity markets. The refinement of the BN-S model is obtained with various machine and deep learning algorithms. The refinement leads to the extraction of a deterministic parameter from the empirical data set. The problem is transformed to an appropriate classification problem with a couple of different approaches: the volatility approach and the duration approach. The analysis is implemented to the Bakken crude oil data and the aforementioned deterministic parameter is obtained for a wide range of data sets. With the implementation of this parameter in the refined model, the resulting model performs much better than the classical BN-S model.

Suggested Citation

  • Humayra Shoshi & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "Hedging and machine learning driven crude oil data analysis using a refined Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model," Papers 2004.14862, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.14862
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "Time-varying long range dependence in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 318-327.
    2. Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 2010. "Shocks, Crashes and Bubbles in Financial Markets," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 53(2), pages 201-253.
    3. Semere Habtemicael & Indranil SenGupta, 2016. "Pricing variance and volatility swaps for Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard process driven financial markets," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 1-35, December.
    4. Aziz Issaka & Indranil SenGupta, 2017. "Analysis of variance based instruments for Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type models: swap and price index," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 401-434, November.
    5. Indranil SenGupta & William Nganje & Erik Hanson, 2021. "Refinements of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard Model: An Analysis of Crude Oil Price with Machine Learning," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 39-55, March.
    6. Semere Habtemicael & Indranil Sengupta, 2016. "Pricing Covariance Swaps For Barndorff–Nielsen And Shephard Process Driven Financial Markets," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(03), pages 1-32, September.
    7. Michael Roberts & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "Sequential hypothesis testing in machine learning, and crude oil price jump size detection," Papers 2004.08889, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    8. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2001. "What Makes Investors Trade?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 589-616, April.
    9. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2007. "Are the crude oil markets becoming weakly efficient over time? A test for time-varying long-range dependence in prices and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 28-36, January.
    10. Michael Roberts & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "Infinitesimal generators for two-dimensional Lévy process-driven hypothesis testing," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 121-139, March.
    11. Indranil Sengupta, 2016. "Generalized Bn–S Stochastic Volatility Model For Option Pricing," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-23, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Humayra Shoshi & Indranil SenGupta, 2023. "Some asymptotics for short maturity Asian options," Papers 2302.05421, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    2. Xianfei Hui & Baiqing Sun & Hui Jiang & Yan Zhou, 2022. "Modeling dynamic volatility under uncertain environment with fuzziness and randomness," Papers 2204.12657, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    3. Xianfei Hui & Baiqing Sun & Hui Jiang & Indranil SenGupta, 2021. "Analysis of stock index with a generalized BN-S model: an approach based on machine learning and fuzzy parameters," Papers 2101.08984, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    4. Treena Basu & Olaf Menzer & Joshua Ward & Indranil SenGupta, 2022. "A Novel Implementation of Siamese Type Neural Networks in Predicting Rare Fluctuations in Financial Time Series," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Shantanu Awasthi & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "First exit-time analysis for an approximate Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model with stationary self-decomposable variance process," Papers 2006.07167, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    6. Nicholas Salmon & Indranil SenGupta, 2021. "Fractional Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model: applications in variance and volatility swaps, and hedging," Papers 2105.02325, arXiv.org.
    7. Nicholas Salmon & Indranil SenGupta, 2021. "Fractional Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model: applications in variance and volatility swaps, and hedging," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 529-558, December.

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